J.P. Ricciardi to come back

The big news is that Cito signed a 2-year extension, but apparently J.P. is also, according to Godfrey to return.

I’m fine with that - J.P. hasn’t improved, but he hasn’t gotten worse. The key is that Paul Godfrey must be fired or kicked somewhere else within Rogers so that a real baseball man can accede to the President’s chair. The way keeps dangling Ricciardi from the helicopter as a live target for the press is ridiculous, and he doesn’t accomplish anything from the President’s chair. The rumours that Pat Gillick might be brought back as team President had me dancing in my office the other day. Gillick would provide fantastic cover for JP and prevent him from his worst excesses.

Dick Scott definitely needs to be retained and given more power if necessary; perhaps an Assistant GM title. I fear Tony LaCava might be on his way soon; if he doesn’t get a GM job this offseason in one of the few open spots, he might want to make a lateral move as a #2. This would be unfortunate, as I suspect Tony might make a better GM than Ricciardi has been though it’s hard to tell.

But Jon Lalonde, I’m sorry because he’s a smart guy and a young guy and a sweet guy who’s been good to a lot of people I know, he just has to go. He needs to go as of yesterday, actually; the scouting system is a disaster and while Dick’s done a nice job with what he has been given, I don’t have confidence that the scouting department knows a talented from a lugnut. Or a future Lugnut, as the case may be.

And J.P. needs to stop interfering in the scouting department’s evaluations. I don’t have any particular problem with him exercising executive authority over decisions like draft and signings, that’s fine, but he gets too involved in the decisionmaking process and he’s letting his personal peccadilloes overwhelm scouting judgment, and that’s bad; he doesn’t see the same way a cross-checker sees.

Gone But Not Forgotten : David Eckstein

Traded, rightly and graciously, to the Diamondbacks for a young reliever (welcome Chad Beck).

I have always found it immensely pleasurable to watch David Eckstein play baseball. There probably isn't a ballplayer alive who couldn't benefit from adapting something Eckstein does to his own game. (The last guys I remember who were like this were Ozzie Smith and Tony Fernandez). I hope Aaron Hill absorbed a lot of the lessons visible in Eckstein's play while he was able to play with him this year - noted the furious commitment (to the moment and to the cause of winning) that carries ordinary players and ordinary teams to the top of the heap.

That said, Eckstein is not a major league shortstop anymore and since he still delivers value with the bat he really should be playing second base (presumably with the D-Backs he will). It's been difficult to watch Eckstein struggle to make his body respond to the demands of a position it can no longer handle. I imagine Eckstein could still play a very fine second base... his feet are definitely not too slow, his footwork is still very fine and his arm, now a total liability at short, is plenty good enough for second.

Much like Mike Bordick before him, David Eckstein was an utter class act and the great thing about his time here is that he's undoubtedly made tens of thousands of more fans for life. Players like David Eckstein actually deserve the hero worship that people give to athletes. I say that without knowing a thing about his personal life (he could bite the heads of baby rabbits for all I care); I mean he plays baseball like a religious mystic in the throes of a frenzied ecstasy.

When I say I believe in the Church of Baseball, that's one of the flavours I am thinking of.

Hall(aday) of Names: Bloody your hands on a cactus tree

These players provide a strange mix between those we kinda miss and those whose dresses we wouldn't want sent to us, wet or dry. Cat, Cerutti, Clark, Coats, and Chulk fall into the first category. You know who's in the second.

Team C's a little short on infielders: Cairo's the only one playing at a familiar position unless you count Catalanotto. I kept Jose Canseco out of the lineup for obvious reasons but he could replace Carty. The rotation's excellent and the bullpen is decent. A 24-man team, too.

LINEUP
1B Frank Catalanotto
LF Jose Canseco
RF Joe Carter
CF Jose Cruz
3B Felipe Crespo
2B Miguel Cairo
C Kevin Cash
SS Howie Clark

BENCH
C Alberto Castillo
OF Willie Canate
OF Sil Campusano
OF Rico Carty
UT Buck Coats

ROTATION
RHSP Jim Clancy
RHSP Roger Clemens
RHSP David Cone
RHSP Chris Carpenter

BULLPEN
RHRP Tim Crabtree
LHRP Tony Castillo
RHRP Danny Cox
RHRP Vinnie Chulk
LHRP John Cerutti
LHRP Jesse Carlson

What's Czech for "disappointment?"

Tangentially related to the Blue Jays (Arencibia was the MVP of this thing last time)...

The 2008 World University Baseball Championship features the following teams:
Canada
Chinese Taipei
Czech Republic (hosts)
India
Japan
Korea
Lithuania
USA

Or, if you prefer:

Tacoma Sidewinders
Lansing Lugnuts
Kitchener Panthers
Vermont Expos
Sultanes de Monterrey
Frisco RoughRiders
Frederick Banting Memorial High School
Boston Red Sox

How can you have a world baseball championship without even one Latin American team?

A damn Jones!

The guy Burnett struck out twice before sunset just destroyed a ball into the bullpen, completing the 19-run inning. Shades of Lilly sidearming the game away vs. Oakland, and if you didn't already know this season was over, the top of the 6th confirmed it with a bullet. An 8-1 lead against the Baltimore Orioles should last longer than a Wells at-bat.

Good game so far, though. Rod Black's more than tolerable when he talks about charity and kids collecting baseball cards and sixty year olds whose lust isn't going going Zaun anytime soon. Not so much baseball.

Did you *see* Roy Halladay pitch last night?

Well?

Hall(aday) of Names: People of the silent movies, kiss of the twilight cry

The B-Squad is a little better than the As (it has a bench!). Bullpen sucks, starters are okay, but I like the lineup. It was tempting to continue The Hives' lyrics, but this song's title should be an update on "Spahn and Sain" given the state of the pitching staff.

LINEUP
1B Jeff Burroughs
2B Homer Bush
RF Jesse Barfield
LF George Bell
SS Mike Bordick
3B Tony Batista
C Pat Borders
CF Bob Bailor

BENCH
C Rod Barajas
C Kevin L. Brown
IF Casey Blake
OF Rob Butler
OF Rick Bosetti
UT Dave Berg

ROTATION
RHSP David Bush
RHSP A.J. Burnett
LHSP Bud Black

BULLPEN
RHRP Tom Buskey
RHRP Brian Bowles
LHRP Denis Boucher
RHRP Miguel Batista, far away from high-leverage situations

Then again, nobody will be watching the Jays in September anyway

Lost in the Cito madness was the news that Welcome Back Veterans, a charity whose purpose is not meant to be denigrated by anything following this dependent clause, has an awareness-raising event or something during MLB games on the July 4 weekend and September 11. As far as I can tell, the American flag will be morphed to fit each team's cap logo and blue will feature prominently in the uniform.

Hat tip, so to speak, to Uni Watch, where Paul Lukas points out that the Blue Jays are included in this. Sort of.

Their "honouring" of an American charity consists of combining the Canadian flag (an excellent, simplistic symbol of our country that everyone not descended from Diefenbaker can be proud of) and the Fighting Jay (none of those things). Ugly evidence here. I'm sorry for linking to that. The Jays have worn the stars and stripes in the past, most of the team is American, these games will be in Chicago and Anaheim, and WBV is MLB-connected, so American flags would have been more appropriate than bringing in the maple leaf for an event partially tied to Iraq. But at the very least MLB recognizes that they have a team playing in another country. Nobody needs to be reminded what song preceded OK Blue Jays on March 31, 2003.

That recognition would be enough progress to declare "the slope is positive" and move on, except that Lukas--who comes across as a sharp guy and really should know better--openly wondered if Canadian soldiers were even in Afghanistan. In a post about an event honouring veterans. So many wars, hard to keep track...

Hall(aday) of Names: Exhibit A, on the tray, what you say?

It's an off-day, so we'll start the Alpha Jays series. Aside from Robbie, this defence will certainly throw the ball in your face, or at least nowhere near your glove.

LINEUP
2B Roberto Alomar
C Alan Ashby
1B Willie Aikens
RF Doug Ault
LF Butch Alberts
CF Russ Adams
3B Gary Allenson
SS Edgardo Alfonzo

ROTATION
RHSP Doyle Alexander
RHSP Luis Andujar
LHSP Clayton Andrews

BULLPEN
RHRP Jeremy Accardo
RHRP Juan Acevedo
RHRP Jim Acker
RHRP Terry Adams
RHRP Carlos Almanzar

Yeah, so that defence is awful, but it's the best option. Could Alberts could play the outfield? Let's hope every single batted ball is hit quickly enough to second base so that Alomar can run it over to first himself (or he has time to give a really soft toss to Aikens). Alfonzo might deserve to be higher, but not after 2006.

This team helpfully introduces the extreme case of the defensive positioning rules. A player is first used at his regular Toronto position (e.g., Alomar), then irregular Toronto position (Aikens), then any other positions with other teams (Alfonzo), then wherever the hell we need him (Thrillhouse). There's no bench, just these nine guys.

And the rotation! Sure, there's Doyle, but the Game 3 starter is Private Andrews. And if anyone can't go on short rest, Terry "Bridgekeeper" / "Patch" / "Back End" / "Whatever Else We Came Up With Back When Signing Him Sounded Like A Good Idea" Adams gets the ball.

The A-Team this ain't. Any ways to improve?

That Hurts, Part 5

"I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi

Days since Frank Thomas was released : 56

Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 27-25

Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 11 in 51 games

Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .319/.417/.516 (OPS+ 164), same as it was last update. Right quadriceps tendinitis has kept him out since May 28 and for at least a few more weeks.

Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .241/321/.305

Stew's on a 2-for-27 kick after his three hits in the 12-0 game. Wilkerson's OPS+ of 83 is the highest among himself, Mench, and Stewart. The Jays scored six runs in three games against the league's worst team.

Hall(aday) of Names: Initial Reactions

It's easier to put these together than it was for Mick to do them for all of baseball because it takes less time. It's harder, however, because there are some letters that just wouldn't cooperate. We'll start our journey through the all-time Alpha Jays teams with the incomplete squads, as a teaser for what's to come:


TEAM E

C Bobby Estalella
3B Tom Evans
SS David Eckstein
LF Jim Eppard
RF Sam Ewing

RHSP Kelvim Escobar
RHSP Nino Espinosa

RHRP Mark Eichhorn
LHRP Scott Eyre
RHRP Leo Estrella
RHRP Butch Edge

The alphabetically-first of our incomplete squads.


TEAM I

1B Garth Iorg
2B Alexis Infante
SS Cesar Izturis
3B Joe Inglett

We have infielders, but nothing else. Good fit for the I team.


Team N

C Steve Nicosia
SS Tim Nordbrook
LF Wayne Nordhagen
CF Otis Nixon
LHSP Phil Niekro
RHRP Jose Nunez
RHRP Mike Nakamura

If Niekro's knuckler is really nasty...no, never mind.


Team O

C Charlie O'Brien
1B Lyle Overbay, John Olerud
SS Rey Olmedo
3B Willie Otanez
CF Al Oliver

If it mattered, we could conceivably move one of L'Overbay and Olderdude to the outfield, but it doesn't so we won't.


TEAM Q

C Guillermo Quiroz
RHRP Paul Quantrill

Paging Eddie Feigner...


TEAM U

1B Willie Upshaw
LHSP Tom Underwood

At least the pickoffs will work.


TEAM V

C Ozzie Virgil
2B Jorge Velandia
RF Otto Velez
LHSP Frank Viola
RHSP Pete Vukovich
LHRP Ben Van Ryn

Man.


TEAM Z

C Gregg Zaun
SS Eddie Zosky

No comment needed.


--

That leaves us with 14 letters that can field a short series roster: A, B, C, D, F, G, H, K, L, M, P, R, S, W. I suspect the lineup will be quite good for the B team...

There's gotta be a better pun than "DePo Depot"

It comes as no surprise to anyone who read Moneyball (or T.J. Simers) to know that Paul DePodesta comes across as "big on process, small on outcome" but let me be the 1432nd guy who lives in his parents' basement one of a select few living in an expensive apartment in Paris on the St. Lawrence to praise his blog. Very few front office personnel publicly talk about concepts like that and even as a non-fan of the Padres, it's just plain cool to see, especially when most of what you read about FO personnel can be summarized by USS Mariner as "why we hate Bavasi."

Reasons, visible tonight, that the Mariners are not very good

In no particular order.

1. Forget the poor arms of most first basemen. Sexson three-hopped it from 100 feet away; didn't think that was possible for a big-leaguer.
   
2. Ibanez showing us why he should be considered the worst outfielder in the game: no range, no hands.
3. Reed, making (1) possible on his cutoff throw to Lop--er, Sexson.
4. Sexson's drop of the foul ball into the green seats (didn't cost them anything, but geez).
5. Reed again! I have never seen, in fifteen years of baseball-watching, a runner on second get thrown out after the batter fails to get the bunt down.
   
6. If you're going to make a defensive replacement, why leave Ibanez in the game?
   
7. Bringing in Miguel Batista, who has not entered a game with men on base this year, with the go-ahead run on second.
   
8. A starter pitching high-leverage relief two days after he was completely bombed.
9. The likely reality of a pinch-runner playing first in extra innings. (I wrote that one in the 8th.)
10. A lineup that allows the other team to intentionally walk the leadoff man.
    
11. Batista again, just because.
    
12. Johjima not bumping Inglett on his follow-through and missing the cheap but easy interference call.

Tonight's reasons the Jays suck are, of course: Jason Frasor, all the popups, those awfully lame BORN TO PLAY commercials (first time I've seen them), an even more useless way to waste McGlovin for the night, Jason Frasor, and losing to the Mariners.

God I hate Rod Black.

On the other hand, it gave Ernie Whitt something to do

"No doubt he injured himself"
- Rance Mulliniks

"He looks in considerable discomfort."
- Jim Hughson


Is this the wrong time to point out that I actually liked the decision to turf Reed for Stew?

"But there's, like, no way I'm rooting for Marco Scutaro"

Finally, a game on TSN

When you don't get Sportsnet, that adverb is appropriate. Random thoughts:

• Rod Black Moment of the Night: "Catching is Rod Barajas--there's A-Rod, but HOW ABOUT B-ROD?!?!"
• Only Shannon Stewart lets a Molina go first-to-third on a single to left.
• Pat Tabler, who barely played the field or threw a ball, is asked how misty rain affected his gameplay.
• Moose not happy with CB Bucknor. Moose's bad mood is justified for once.
  
• The first time Jesse Litsch retired the leadoff batter, three two-out runs scored.
  
• Rod Black Moment #2: "Derek Jeter: third-time [sic] all-time!"
• Felt bad turning off the game after Thigpen came in, because he'll probably never get to play again.
  
• Rod Black Moment #3: "Number two gets number three to pass number seven!"
  
• Pat Tabler, who only does like 128 Yankee games every year, says he can't think of anyone else who bends quite like Mussina does from the stretch, then after a pregnant pause says "except Ian Kennedy."
• Rios looks fine to me. Hooray for two plate appearances instead of 262!
  

There was also a game last night on whatever they call TBS now and it made me wonder what exactly a burke badenhop is. Still not sure.

Beware the Curse of the Titties

I still can't believe that poor Brant Colamarino's career may be over, only a few months after this blog was created. I am seriously considering renaming this place after Stewart now.

That Hurts, Part 4

A day early today.

“I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi

Days since Frank Thomas was released : 39

Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 19-17

Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 7 in 36 games

Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .319/.417/.516 (OPS+ 164)

Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .264/.331/.321

Stew was on a very impressive 11-game hitting streak until last night during which he hit .359, but with no power. Mench and Wilkerson are hitting a combined .183. The offense is beginning to pick things up but in their last 12 losses the Jays have scored 18 runs - 1.5 per game. 8 of those 12 losses have been by 1 or 2 runs, or in extras.

Inappropriate Names on the All-Star Ballot

(Otherwise known as "who I voted for")

1B Richie Sexson, SEA
2B Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
SS Luis Hernandez, BAL
3B Melvin Mora, BAL
OF Jacque Jones, DET; Brad Wilkerson, SEA; Adam Jones, BAL
C Kenji Johjima (only if Washburn gets the start), SEA
DH Frank Thomas, TOR

1B Dan Ortmeier, SF
2B Kazuo Matsui, HOU
SS Cristian Guzman, WAS
3B Pedro Feliz, PHI
C Ronny Paulino, PIT
OF Andruw Jones, LA; Jim Edmonds, SD; Michael Bourn, HOU

But I know there'll be some way

When I can swing everything back my way
Like skyscrapers rising up
Floor by floor--I'm not giving up!

Colamarino out for the year. Didn't appear in a game.

Colamarino Has Trivia

Today's first question comes from Steve Paikin's Remembering David Steinhart post:

Yankees’ pitcher Ron Guidry went 25-3 in 1978 in one of the all-time great seasons for a pitcher. Name the three pitchers who defeated him.

The late Steinhart could not come up with it, but I'll give you two hints: these three men have the same first name and one of them was a Blue Jay.

Honour system in effect as always.

That Hurts - Part 3

“I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi

Days since Frank Thomas was released : 30

Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 15-14

Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 4 in 29 games

Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .269/.390/.343

Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .253/.321/.333

Stew's picked it up a bit lately, but not by much. Both players basically sat all weekend during that despicable sideshow of interleague play. Mench and Wilkerson haven't done much yet.

Urge to kill updated

Tybalt complained about the MLB schedule last summer. Specifically, the August 2007 long weekend was "the first time since 2002 that the Jays have played three home games on a summer long weekend." I don't think the many people who complain about the MLB schedule realize how incredibly difficult it is--go ahead, try scheduling something like the Intercounty Baseball League and see how far you get--but that won't stop me from taking a look at the 2008 long weekends.

Since, you know, today is the first one.

Everything except the 2008 line below is from his original post. This year, the Jays were out of town entirely for the May weekend, at home on Sat/Sun but not Mon/Tue of the Canada Day weekend, at home only on the August holiday Monday and not the weekend, and not even playing on Labour Day. What's with playing Canada Day out in Seattle?

Year  5/24  7/01  8/01  9/01

2008  road  half  half  road
2007  road  road  home  half
2006  half  half  road  half
2005  half* road  half* half
2004  half  road  half  half*
2003  half  half  road  half
2002  half  half  home  home

(* : played at home on the weekend and had an off-day on the holiday.)
("half" means some games on the weekend but not all three days.)

The GM Family

Following on from Magpie's brilliant research at Da Box... I hereby present version 0.01 (alpha) of the General Managers' Family Tree. Click to enlarge...

Brad Wilkerson : Then and Now

THEN: Rios for Wilkerson would be an excellent deal. Wilkerson would give the Jays a nice bat in RF, while Rios might just be "toolsy" enough to interest Bowden.

THEN: Last year it was Wilkerson for Wells, pretty sure it hasn't gone down by *that* much.

THEN: Batista for Wilkerson is quite palatable, but why not add Rios, Hinske and a couple of exciting young arms to the offer and get Nick the Stick too?

THEN: If I'm Washington, I don't like Reed Johnson plus Batista for Wilkerson - I think I would hold out for Alex Rios (which I think is still doable)

THEN (my favourite): I'd do Batista for Wilkerson in half-a-second. Would JP? How about about Chacin and Rios for Wilkerson? I'd do that one even quicker. But what do I know? Nothing, that's what -- except that JP ain't done and I ain't gonna bitch and moan about who he trades and whoever the hitters are that he comes up with until I see how the '06 season plays out.

NOW: Wilkerson was signed off the scrap heap.

NOW: Wilkerson has not done much for over 2 years against all types of pitchers. I would much rather have a Lind/Stewart platoon.

NOW: As for Wilkerson, I'm not so fond of that acquisition.

Bonus Miguel Negron sighting! Furthermore, and I have only circumstantial evidence to back this up, but I would bet that Wells will be in a different uniform in 2008. If that's the case, who's going to play CF if Rios is traded? Negron?

That Hurts - Part 2

“I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi

Days since Frank Thomas was released : 20

Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 8-10

Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 1 in 18 games

Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .267/.400/.356

Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .224/.283/.286

The decision looks worse than ever with the looming arrival of Brad Wilkerson and the lovely 0-for-6 Stew put up in the 2 hole last night.

The Prince

Much discussion over at Da Box about JP Ricciardi, following on from Robert Dudek's insightful and timely piece on Ricciardi's legacy. In the comments, Robert and the always perceptive Mike Green pointed to intelligence and creativity as the key aspects of a good GM. I think that's missing something, as I replied:

There's a third leg to that GM tripod that gets far, far too little exposure but one which is equally as important as intelligence and creativity. Management.

A general manager has to be (unsurprisingly) a good manager, has to have or develop that specific, rather tight bundle of skills that enables someone to lead, organize, plan and control. Qualities like leadership. Bravery. Trust. Organization. Integrity. Wisdom. The bundle of skills that shows up not in the "what" of an organization but in its "how"; not in the individual decision-trees that we seize on as critical markers in the narrative of a general manager's tenure, but in the forest of continual process, growth and change that the 300 or so members of a major league organization are in the midst of on a daily basis.

If there is one constant in the list of names you mentioned, Mike, it is that they have or had superb leadership skills, to the point that they have built tremendous loyalty within their organizations (as well as without). There are a number of reasons why one organization supposedly loaded with young talent produces four Hall of Fame talents in eight years and another, equally loaded, nearly contemporary to it, produces nothing but heartache and misery. But the central reason is because one is led by John Schuerholz and the second is led by Frank Cashen, both of whom won exactly one world championship but whose organizations could not have been more different. And yes, it pains me viscerally to say nice things about the Braves. :)

Look at Branch Rickey, who had smarts and vision but whose smarts and vision would have come to nothing if he had not inspired (grudging) loyalty, or behaved himself with courage and integrity. All the vision in the world amounts to nothing without the courage to plow a different furrow.

To my view, this is where Ricciardi has fallen down most frustratingly, where he has not built upon his native strengths or worked to remedy his native deficiencies. Ricciardi's management approach has, if anything, grown more timid and afraid of failure since he has come into the job. He has pulled the organization into a defensive, reactionary shell, with the occasional body hurled over the parapet when someone fails to jump on board with his "us vs. them" philosophy. And he has failed to demonstrate the wisdom of acknowledging and learning from his mistakes.

He does do some of these things well. I think he's a good leader (though we're increasingly seeing cracks even in that, keeping in mind his recent comments on Gregg Zaun). I think he is decisive and aggressive and makes his decisions quickly. And he has inspired trust and loyalty from many, not least of which are the twin engines of the team, Roy Halladay and Brad Arnsberg. His willingness to stand up before than fans and be shot at, shows an example of his integrity. But those were his hallmarks when coming in, and he has not notably made improvements in his management skills generally. I thought, five-plus years on, that he'd be a smarter general manager now, and he has definitely accomplished that in my view. But I also thought he'd be a better manager, and I don't think he is.

Ne blessez pas...er, quatre...match...

Haven't been able to watch or listen to any games in a few days now. But, since I officially woke up in my new apartment for the first time on the morning of May 1, the Blue Jays haven't lost a game. I know you're not supposed to mess with a winning streak, but I have to leave Montreal at the end of August...

Men(a)s(h)a

Today's Olneyblog contains this gem of wisdom from an old friend, via Andy Sonnanstine:

"I was telling [Hinske] of how much better I felt if I threw a first-pitch strike and he was letting me know how amped he's getting when there's a 2-0 count, or 3-1. He gets excited because he knows that statistically, the chances are he's going to get a base knock."

I don't doubt he knows (like everyone) that he hits better at 2-0 or 3-1, but Hinske knowing something statistically? Also, Andy, if you have to go to Eric Hinske to learn "strikes > balls" then this pitching thing might not be for you.

Hooray, hooray, and all that

In the Devil Rays Era, here are the Blue Jays' records in April, total wins in the season, and expected wins if April were the entire year.

Year April W AprW Diff
2001 0.640 80 104 -24
1999 0.542 84 88 -4
2006 0.522 87 85 2
2005 0.520 80 84 -4
2007 0.520 83 84 -1
2000 0.462 83 75 8
2008 0.393 ??? 64 ???
1998 0.385 88 62 26
2003 0.357 86 58 28
2002 0.333 78 54 24
2004 0.318 67 52 16

Optimistic view: The team's been worse in April and has still finished with 85+ wins. The 1989 team (not shown) was worse than the 2008 team in April and played in October. This does not mean they should hire Cito. Go away, all of you.

Pessimistic view: The Jays haven't had more than 88 wins in ten years.

Another view: The best April in team history is 1992 (16-7, .696) with Cito (This does not mean they should...), then it's 1985 (13-7, .650) with Bobby Cox. So, two great Aprils, two great managers. Then in third place in 2001 is...Buck Martinez?

The Rebuild

Screw it, let's have some fun. Obviously, it's too early to punt the season yet, but let's face it, there's a pretty solid chance (maybe 50/50?) that the Jays are going to have to punt the season by the August trade deadline if not the July one. So let's have some fun, and assume that 2008 is the end of the Five-Year Cycle and we're headed for a teardown and rebuild.

Now, of course, we should be careful to point out that the Jays are very, very far from needing a complete teardown, and there will be no need to promote and play a bunch of 22-year-old kids in a futile attempt to hothouse a winner. There's lots of pieces here that will be part of the Next Great Jays Team.

First, let's note that after 2008, all the existing payroll obligations to former players are gone. This means two things: (1) more room to cut payroll and sock it away for future years; and (2) room if needed to dump some money with players to pick up prospects or young players or turnaround projects. Now secondly, let's remember that presumably, the Blue Jays would be looking at 2011 or 2010 at the outside as a first year to contend under a rebuilt team. But more likely 2011.

First clearout : Gibby. Clearly, if the Jays are fallen out of contention by July or August, Gibby will be fired. So that's one gone.

Now let's consider the rotation. Doc is signed for two more years after 2008, at $30 million total. He's excellent value for those years, superlative value for 2008 as well at a salary of only $10 million. I suppose that your desire to keep Doc is proportional to your ability to sign him to another extension, as the Jays did last time. I think the chances of that are good, and Doc provides a focus that the team can build around. I'd want him to stay.

A.J. Burnett is as good as gone, assuming he has any value left by then. He has the opt-out clause in his contract after this year, and he would be crazy not to exercise it if he remains relatively healthy. So A.J. must be traded to a contender. He would bring considerable value - his contract's pretty reasonable. A.J. has a no-trade clause that blocks 15 teams, but that's not insurmountable.

Dustin McGowan has about 1.6 years' service time. He is part of the Next Great Jays Team. Shaun Marcum has 15 more days' service time than McGowan, and he is also part of the Next Great Jays Team. Jesse Litsch has about exactly one year less than the other two. It's easy to forget that the Jays have three quite competent, very young starters in their rotation, a situation that most other teams would kill for.

Young pitchers in the bullpen who are also under the Jays' control for the next three years or more (usually much more) are Tallet, League, Wolfe, Accardo, and Carlson. There is no reason to trade any of these guys, unless you want to "sell high" on Brian Wolfe.

Jason Frasor is an interesting case, and if there is one pitcher in the team who I think could be traded well in advance of the deadline, it's Frasor, who remains a guy with a very live arm but who doesn't have the management's confidence. Frasor has about 3 3/4 years of service time, meaning he is under control for the next two years but not in 2011. He's available at a good price, and Carlson is going to eat even more of his innings. There is no particular reason, with the number of younger pitchers the team has, to retain Frasor and if someone offers a righty-hitting outfielder for Frasor you'd think he'd be gone like yesterday's grocery flyers.

Scott Downs, given his new-found shoulder woes, may have missed a market. Downs is signed for 2009 and 2010 at pretty big dollars for a middle reliever ($3.75M and $4M). I think he is worth it if healthy. However, again we need to remember that the NGJT arrives in 2011. If his wing is a go, Downs would probably be well-sought after. However, the length of his contract may mean his value is lower, in which case keeping him in Toronto may make more sense.

It may make particular sense because although it kills me to say it, B.J. Ryan may be out the door right behind A.J. Burnett. I absolutely love Ryan, but the fact remains that for a team looking to cut budget to enter a rebuilding phase, and in a team where Jeremy Accardo can increase his value by moving to the closer role, Ryan is superfluous to requirements if you're not contending. His $10M/year deal is not an obstacle to him being traded to a team that needs help closing games - provided he's throwing well, you only need to locate that team and you should manage to get a good package in return for Ryan, especially given that he is yet another guy signed through 2010 but a free agent thereafter.

So that's the pitchers. I see four on the block in the event of a rebuilding phase beginning - Burnett, Ryan, Downs, and Frasor (who is on the block anyway). That would represent, incidentally, a total of $27 million off the 2009 payroll, although of course all four are very unlikely to be dealt.

We'll do the hitters later. Let's say that while there are nine pitchers on the roster that you'd think could be part of the Next Great Jays Team, there are... um... slightly fewer hitters you'd say that about.

Blast from the Recent Past

Back in the 2005-06, when the world was fresh and green and a young man could usually post on a Jays-related website without wanting to spill blood all over it, a group of us had a conversation about Brad Wilkerson over at Batter's Box. Wilkerson was a popular rumoured target of the Jays at the time, a target that I think we all can say we're relieved not to have hit.

I had something to say that I saw again tonight and that I thought was a particularly good, short point about my favorite hobbyhorse, risk.

You've done a much better job at outlining the anti-Wilkerson case, which I acknowledge is totally legit and sensible. Few players are perfect, and Wilkerson's flaws are more obvious than most good players (his skills are also less obvious).

Much of that case boils down to Wilkerson having a bad year last year. If he hadn't, there is absolutely no way he'd be available in the first place - the year before he'd hit 32 home runs and nobody could touch him with a ten-foot pole. "What have you done for me lately?" has a powerful psychological hold on fans, press and baseball people, but it shouldn't make us lose sight of the fact that Wilkerson's skills do not appear to be significantly eroded, he is still in his prime, and his relatively poor performance last year will make him cheaper in arbitration.

Wilkerson is risky, because he may not return to the level he played at previously. Because of the Jays' position in the AL, it is imperative that they take significant risks in order to be competitive. The Jays cannot wait for the "sure thing" to drop into their lap, not merely because we've all waited long enough, but because they need to get more bang for their buck than the typical team. Taking risks needs to be an essential part of their strategy. Signing players like Wilkerson who have just had an off year is a sensible way to add risk to the team.

In business, in life, in baseball, too often we equate the notion of "risk management" with "risk minimization". This is not the proper way to see risk. Properly considered, risk in and of itself is value-neutral, and merely adds variability. The Jays need to make variability their friend if they want to win a World Series - almost anybody does. If you want an example of that, call up Kenny Williams and ask him why he signed Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras or ask the Pistons why they "rolled the dice" with Antonio McDyess.

Properly managed, risk wins championships.

That Hurts - Part 1 of a long series

“I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi

Days since Frank Thomas was released : 10

Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 2-7

Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 0 in 9 games

Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .313/.476/.500

Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .143/.250/.190

We're doing this one all summer, boys.

Credit where it's due

God knows we get on Gibby for...everything, lately. But consider his decision today to pitch B.J. Ryan in the eighth and Jesse Carlson in the ninth:

1) Ryan needed work and Gibbons didn't wait for a ninth-inning situation that could have never happened (if KC took the lead and the Jays didn't tie it).

2) Ryan only threw nine pitches and could have pitched the ninth, presumably, but Gibbons decided the ninth wasn't important enough to send Ryan back out. Then again you could mark this up to "riding the hot hand" (Carlson) and "only three outs for the closer."

3) Up by one in the 8th is more crucial, I'm assuming, than up by one in the ninth (the likely state of the game given what we knew after seven innings).

4) Most importantly, someone else got a save when Ryan was available to pitch.

While I'm here, I am also a big fan of any lineup with Eckstein not leading off. More, please.

In other news

Quote of the Day from AJB:

"My whole plan today was to come out and try to be as nasty as I could."

Frank Thomas Released

Frank Thomas has been released after he complained about being benched in order to prevent his option kicking in (let's be adults here, it's obvious this is what is going on).

I have defended J.P. Ricciardi for an awfully long time, but it's become more and more obvious as time goes on that he is a very poor manager of risk. Just how getting rid of one of your highest-upside players is supposed to help you win the pennant, I haven't the faintest idea. Ricciardi has become more and more conservative in his decision-making the longer he's been in the job, and the results are the disheartening mess of an attempt at "contention" we've seen the last two years. The original contract to Thomas was an excellent piece of risk management in my view. This latest move, though, repudiates all the good work put into it.

Frank, my dear

In response to the "does Thomas have anything left" discussion at Da Box:
--

I'm sure Thomas has something left, too. I'm just not sure what it is.

He's hitting just .159 on balls in play, his lowest ever. His .177 in 2005 at least came with a slugging average near .600 and a homer every three games. That may correct itself if he gets more playing time, but his line drive rate has been dropping steadily for five or six years, and with it his power. Even if you ignore this year. Subjectively, of course, Thomas looks awful (though I recognize that he looked similarly bad last year and still ended up above-average).

And this "Thomas is always a slow starter" nonsense needs to be put to rest. It's only lately that he's really struggled in the beginning--i.e., April 2006 and May 2007. In his career, his March/April line is .283/.407/.513 vs. .302/.420/.559 overall. Doesn't seem that far off to me.

I know we're all supposed to think warm and fuzzy thoughts about Frank the teddy bear, but unless that bear is going to maul someone like Dana Eveland, it looks as clear to me as the lack of hair on Magpie's head that Thomas' career is either done or close to it.

FREE ADAM LIND.

Ouch

Well, that was a roller coaster ride last night. Quite literally : the Win Probability graph over at FanGraphs looks like an EKG of Jerry Lewis being propositioned by Marilyn Monroe.

As I said to Rob after last night finally ended, yes it was not a well-played game, and it was frustrating as all get out, but it was a million times better than the shower of shit we endured last Wednesday when Marco Scutaro redefined the word FAIL.

Halladay in heat

So here's what Cathal Kelly's Glasses posted about Halladay's performance in hot weather:

I'm not the man to take up the statisical/research challenge, but it would be interesting to measure Halladay's lifetime performance in reference to the heat when he pitches. Halladay flat out hates it hot. Last year, in a September start in Baltimore, the first line out of his mouth after the game was "I'm beginning to believe in that whole global warming thing."

The Baltimore start was his last of the season, a below average outing for Doc (but a fantastic outing for Victor Zambrano). Weather apparently 85 and cloudy.

And maybe I'm not the man either, but here's what I found. Using 2002-2007 as the range and counting all of Halladay's 173 starts in that six-year period, I would say Halladay is actually quite a bit better on hot days, given that he shows no significant decrease in results (whereas, to quote Jonathan Hale, "batters in weather under 50 degrees Fahrenheit average .249/.318/.410 while in a pleasant 81-85, they hit .297/.356/.468"). Seriously. There's no correlation whatsoever between his Game Score and the game time temperature.

But whatever. If Roy Halladay came up to me, the newly-appointed manager of the Blue Jays (I live in Boston*; that's why JP was here recently) and says, "Skip, I'm tired of this global warming thing. Give me an extra day off so I don't pitch in K.C.," Jesse Litsch would be on that mound so fast he wouldn't be pink and round anymore.

* I do not live in Boston.

Hinske Contract Follies

The signing of Chris Young to a long-term deal by the Diamondbacks has prompted a revisitation of, among others, the Eric Hinske contract over at Primer. Where it was asserted that "it wasn't a good idea to commit to Hinske so soon".


My thoughts :


The Jays knew that Hinske had flaws in his approach at the plate, so I think it's quite legitimate to criticize the early commitment to Hinske, but two points need to be emphasized:


1. Based on the available projections at the time, the contract was a steal - in other words, I don't think anyone showed empirically that it was anything other than a good idea.


2. The Jays thought they could fix Hinske's flaws, correct his style without disturbing his talent.


They proved to be wrong on point #2, and that's a shame (Hinske's weight is still too far forward), and the hand injury probably didn't help, as he cut down his swing and started even further over his centre of gravity, slashing at the ball instead of driving off the back foot. Everyone (literally just about everyone) started pitching him backwards and he began to flail. He's not a "student of the game", exactly, is Hinske. Or a student of anything.


Should they have known? Debatable - it wouldn't have hurt them to exercise caution and it would have saved them a bit of money (true, Hinske delivered just about market value for his performance after 2002 but they wouldn't have had to pay *him* that much). Hinske had dropped off in the second half as word got around that he would overcommit to his weight transfer, and that should have been obvious - there may have been some who believed it was just the season wearing on him. I wouldn't have hesitated to sign him to the same deal at the time, though. I thought it was a fine idea, that didn't work out.

Trouble for The Hated Yankees? Not so much

News arrives that Derek Jeter is hurt, and will miss a small amount of time. There is already discussion out there (hat tip to Jeff Passan at Yahoo) that maybe A-Rod should take over at short if La Derek needs to miss some time.

Wise Yankee Watcher Mick Doherty over at Da Box says that Wilson Betemit is listed on most depth charts as the backup shortstop. (And furthermore uses his own experience of watching A-Rod in Dallas to point out that A-Rod wasn't that great a shortstop to begin with, five years ago.)

But I'd point out that if Jeter were out for a while, you can't play Betemit at short. Alex may not have been great, but Betemit is terrible. He's got slow feet and his arm isn't shortstop quality because of a slow release. You'd be loads better off playing A-Rod at short and letting Ensberg and Betemit platoon at third base, where between then they would probably give production not too far off Derek Jeter's. Betemit/Ensberg is a hell of a platoon offensively and Alberto Gonzalez probably isn't major-league ready yet (if he will ever be). I agree that it's politically a difficult move, politically implausible if Jeter is only out for a couple of days.

If he's out for weeks, I think that equation changes. What's amazing is that after a couple of years of being Benchless Wonders (for a while easrly last year, the Yankees had what must have been the worst major league bench in the history of Christendom), the Yankees have realized the errors of their ways and now have a pretty robust group of backups. A Betemit/Ensberg platoon is far better than what 10-15 teams in baseball have starting at third, and is better than what a lot of teams have starting at first.

Where Do Bullpens Come From?

[This post is cross-posted from Tiny Chunks of Empire]

Good discussion over at Primer on "where bullpens come from". Specifically, the provenance of individual relievers - how they came to be relievers, and most specifically, whether they were originally starters and were converted to relief.

What's more interesting to me than whether a guy is a starter convert, though (and which made my heart jump a beat when I saw "where do bullpens come from") is how General Managers (and field managers) build a bullpen.

Let's take our current Blue Jays and their superb pen as an example. How do you build a really good pen? Let's look at the relievers on the active roster...

B.J. RYAN - Big-ticket free agent signing (in fact, the largest ever contract awarded a reliever at the time it was signed). Signed away from Baltimore. Currently in year 3 of a 5-year, $47-million deal.

JEREMY ACCARDO - Acquired in a 2006 deadline trade with San Francisco for Shea Hillenbrand and reliever Vinnie Chulk. The trade was widely seen as a pure contract dump (Hillenbrand was massively unpopular with the team and had a relatively big contract) and Accardo was a relatively anonymous player. The trade was a brilliant steal for Toronto, so far. Accardo is currently making major league minimum and will be arb-eligible next season. He was originally an undrafted free agent, showing how far down the organizational totem pole he was at first, and then rocketed through the Giants' system in two years.

CASEY JANSSEN - A 4th-round draft choice in 2004 out of UCLA (received a $150,000 signing bonus). Few had Janssen rated that high other than myself and a very few other statistically-aware draft watchers. Janssen moved steadily through the system and came to the team as a starter when injuries hit in 2006; he was moved to the pen before 2007 and performed brilliantly. Still making minimum and will be arb-eligible in 2009.

SCOTT DOWNS - Signed as a minor-league free agent before the 2005 season. At the time, Downs was widely seen as going nowhere fast given what many perceived as mediocre stuff. What wasn't understood is that Downs had good stuff, just not a good fastball. His secondary pitches were excellent and when he was signed he was coming off a brilliant September for Montreal - in his last seven starts of 2004 he had an ERA around three and a half for a bad team. He has pitched extremely well since coming to Toronto, first as a swingman and now as the #1 setup lefty. Downs became arb-eligible after 2004, and signed modest one-year contracts for 2006 and 2007, before cashing in on his 2008 with a 3-year deal worth $10 million in total.

BRIAN TALLET - Acquired in a minor-league trade with Cleveland prior to the 2006 season, for minor-league reliever Bubbie Buzachero. Tallet has performed extremely well since coming to Toronto for absolutely nothing. I didn't think much of Tallet at the time, thought he was a gimmicky guy trying to make a go of it with a crossfire delivery. Turns out he was just waiting for Brad Arnsberg. J.P. Ricciardi doesn't get too much credit for Tallet though - he was DFAed in the spring of '06 and again in the spring of '07, and could easily have been lost to the team either time. Tallet was arb-eligible for the first time this year, as a "super two" and signed a modest one-year deal for about 50% over the minimum.

JASON FRASOR - Acquired in a trade with the Dodgers at the roster cut-down deadline just before the 2004 season. The Jays faced losing OF Jayson Werth due to a roster crunch and flipped him to LA for Frasor who had trouble moving up the ladder with the Dodgers. The knock on Frasor in LA was his size (too small) but he became an immediate favorite with the Jays who had a fairly dire bullpen situation after the clearout of Gord Ash's refuse pile and the implosion of Ricciardi's first round of scrap-heap pickups from 2003. The trade was probably a draw; Werth has been a useful part-timer for the Dodgers when he has been healthy, but Frasor has produced well for Toronto (his ERAs show a gradual recession, but the underlying stats show that's unwarranted). After making minimum for three years, he qualified for arb status last year as a super two and has since signed two modest one-year deals; he'll earn about three times the minimum this year.

BRANDON LEAGUE - A 2nd-round draft choice in 2001 out of high school in Hawaii, by the Gord Ash regime (received a $660,000 signing bonus). Was a starter under Ash, but once Ricciardi came one the scene and began pushing prospects more aggressively, League began flipping back and forth between starting and relieving. League saw sporadic action in 2005. He started the season with the big club but was inconsistent; the team thought he may profit from more seasoning and sent him back to Syracuse (calling up Matt Whiteside, of all people, in his place). Brought back in July, he struggled initially but finally caught his groove in the mopup role. He was sent out in 2006, though, specifically to close for Syracuse and to work as a short reliever once and for all. He did not pitch well but was brought back to Toronto in July and pitched brilliantly, mostly setting up Ryan and doing it very well. He then missed much of last season with a self-inflicted injury. League's still on the minimum and will be arb-aligible if he spends the year with the big club, as he should - he is now out of options.

BRIAN WOLFE - Acquired in trade with Milwaukee prior to the 2006 season. This was a widely-criticized trade in which the Jays dumped 3B Corey Koskie to Milwaukee in exchange for Wolfe, who was seen as a nothing player - mere organizational filler. Wolfe had bounced around a great deal and had actually been released by Minnesota's AAA farm club in Rochester because the pitching-laden Twins had nowhere at AA or AAA to put him when he was still recovering from an injury. The Brewers had picked him up and stuck him in A-ball where they were short a reliever, and then flipped him to the Jays after the end of the season. Wolfe had a highly undistinguished 2006 but caught fire in 2007, pitching great in the Syracuse pen and earning a call to Toronto when A Small Eternity With Tomo Ohka pulled up its tents and slunk out of town. Wolfe pitched for Toronto for most of the rest of the season; once John Gibbons realized that righties weren't touching Wolfe's stuff with a bargepole, he gained an increasingly prominent role as a righthanded specialist. Wolfe was never entirely convincing, but he stayed and more than held his own. He won a job for '08 easily out of camp. The Jays could easily have lost him in the 06/07 offseason as Wolfe was a six-year free agent, but credit to the management, they brought him back despite his poor year. He has at least two more years at the minimum.

RANDY WELLS - A Rule 5 Draft pick from the Chicago Cubs before the 2008 season. (Wells was therefore bought for the waiver price - $50,000). Currently auditioning for the role of mop-up man and sixth starter.

So for those counting, that's two draftees (one by Ricciardi's team, one that he inherited but who was mostly developed by his people); one very big-ticket free agent; one minor-league free agent with a spotty track record; three guys picked up in trades that were widely seen as forced on the Jays by salary or roster considerations; one guy picked up in a "my trash for your trash" trade; and a Rule 5 draft pick.

The total value spent on acquiring the eight guys behind Ryan probably wasn't ten million dollars of value all told, and 70% of that was Jayson Werth. You wouldn't accept the entire package together for Jeremy Accardo. Would you? Even if you could magically trade draft picks, would you take a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder, Shea Hillenbrand circa 2006, Vinnie Chulk circa 2006, Jayson Werth circa 2004, Bubbie Buzachero circa 2006, Corey Koskie circa 2006, and $860,000 for Accardo? I wouldn't. Accardo was an honest-to-god genuine big leaguer (though struggling) when the Jays landed him, but the other five non-draftees (Downs, Tallet, Frasor, Wolfe, Wells) were flotsam and garbage - none was considered a major league prospect worth blowing your nose on.

And that is how you build a bullpen. There will always be room for one or two guys who are genuinely, blow-you-away great (both in ability and salary demands). But the vast majority of great pens are built off someone else's rejects and your own mid-round draftees. The Jays have done that brilliantly.

Know your bragging rights

On the TSN broadcast yesterday, J.P. Ricciardi said (or Pat Tabler said to JP; can't remember) that the Jays had the most wins of anyone in the last two years without making the playoffs. And wouldn't you know it, he's right.

191 NYY (2 times made the playoffs)
183 DET (1)
183 LAA (1)
182 BOS (1)
175 MIN (1)
174 CLE (1)
170 TOR (0)
169 OAK (1)
166 SEA (0)
162 CHW (0)
...some losers

Don't know if that's impressive or who-cares-if-they-can-win-games-in-September-with-nothing-on-the-line. May is when they sucked last year, after all.

One of those guys also said something like "one of 9 teams with back-to-back winning seasons." There were five AL teams who did it (you know who they are, and who they aren't) as well as the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres. Amusingly, every NL Central team above .500 in 2006 was below .500 in 2007.

The former third baseman

A poster over at BTF was asking about Troy Glaus, whether there was "any chronic stuff" on the injury front that wasn't showing up in games missed in '06 and '07. My response:

Yeah, there's lots of chronic stuff. Glaus was permanently hurt in Toronto, after the first half of '06, with a variety of lower-body stuff. He's very gritty, and he plays well when hurt (unlike a lot of guys who will play hurt but will play poorly when doing so) but the most worrying thing about him for his future is that his most recent serious injuries are to his feet - and big guys NEVER do well after foot injuries (NBA players, for example, have an absolutely horrible record at recovery from foot injuries). And it's not one problem, either - he has a heel problem (bone spurs), and he has plantar fasciitis as well.

The problems started in his knees, and were probably exacerbated by having him play at short during June of '06. The knee gave him trouble for the whole rest of that year, it never really healed (he just played through the discomfort). Then in spring last year, he had the bone spurs in his heel giving him trouble - having surgery to shave them down wasn't an option, so he basically had to rest it completely to try to get it to heal. When he came back, he was very, very slow - he was never fast but now he was noticeably slower when running the bases. But he was playing marvelously - he was hitting a ton and playing very well at third - his range problem just made him play deeper and use his arm more.

But that changed running style ended up giving him hamstring trouble in the early part of the '07 season, so he was back missing games again. Again, he came back - playing through the pain - but this time the hammy was causing him to shorten his stride and slow his hip turn, and he was batting gamely but generating no power. He took a few games off here and there and got some rest, and he started to hit with authority again. But he's slowed down even more, and his feet were giving him even more trouble, and finally at the all-star break they figured out he had plantar fasciitis. For which the only real remedy is complete and utter rest - don't walk on it at all. And he came back eventually, after taking some time off around the break, and again he was in a lot of pain, but his hamstring had gotten truly better after the rest, and he started hitting all over the place.

And from there on in, the plantar fasciitis just kept giving him more and more trouble. He was competent from there on in, again playing well through the pain. He continued to play extremely well on defence as well, despite the injuries - again, that rocket arm of his can really bail him out of trouble. But given his age, his size, and the fact that the problems are in his feet, I seriously doubt that Glaus will ever again have a healthy season. He might well play 140-150 games, but he will not be playing them in perfect health. That doesn't matter as much for him as it does with someone with a less power-based playing style (power arm and bat) but it still matters. When Glaus first came to Toronto I fully expected him to hit 50 homers, or damn near to it. I'd say to expect about half that many this season.

Shelley Duncan has the Good Mace

Let's go through the lineup of amusing moments in this one.

[Obligatory Jays content: Well, excuse me, Judge Reinhold. We don't need any. It's friggin' Shelley Duncan.]

1) "What you saw today was the definition of a dirty play."

Leading off, Joe Maddon and his happy disregard for that nutjob in my philosophy class who constantly reminds us of Socrates' distinction between "example" and "definition."

2) Batting second: Pain.

3) Batting third, Elliot Johnson. He's "not changing his style" of...breaking the rule against fraternizing with opposing players? Will he talk to any of the Yankees? "Only if I get on base."

4) At cleanup, Brittany Ghiroli's Hilarious Veiled Innuendo. Let me replace one word with a blank and see how the meaning of the story changes. The Rays have "given Johnson a long, hard ____ in Spring Training, especially with utility infielder Ben Zobrist out with a fractured thumb." Johnson again: "if you get lucky enough, you might just slide in somewhere." Maddon: "this guy is very gifted, you can see that."

5) Here it's Duncan himself, hoping everyone forgets that he didn't play in 128 of New York's games last year: "I never in my mind think about sending a message to the other team. They see me playing hard every single day."

6) Batting sixth, Joe Maddon's and Joe Girardi's Shared Anger: "There's no room for that in our game. It's contemptible, it's wrong, it's borderline criminal." / "I think it's uncalled for. It's Spring Training. I'm all for playing hard, but I don't think it's the time when you run over a catcher in Spring Training."

7) Batting sixth, Joe Maddon's and Joe Girardi's Shared Appreciation Of Hard-Nosed Plays: "We're playing it hard, we're playing it right. It was a bang-bang play at the plate. I couldn't tell exactly where the catcher was in regard to the plate. He was trying to score a run right there, and that was part of the game." / "Shelley told me he was taught as a player that when you're going to be out, you go after the ball. That's what he did."

8) Next up, MLB's Ongoing Insistence That Every Tampa Bay Incident Is, Like, Really Serious: "Both benches had already been warned by umpires before the game, given events on Saturday at Legends Field in Tampa, Fla., when Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli suffered a broken right wrist in a home-plate collision." Goddamnit, if there's one thing I won't stand for, it's injuries to Francisco Cervelli.

And finally, batting ninth as always, Jonny Johnson Gomes:

9) "Right fielder Jonny Gomes charged Duncan from behind" / Gomes: "It's baseball. This isn't boxing or fighting or anything." No matter how much he desperately wishes it were.

Count one off Montefusco, one off Welsh

Jerry Howarth just asked 17-year veteran Alan Ashby if he knew his batting averages from both sides of the plate, for his 17 years in the majors. Ashby said no, but he thought he was better from the left side (he was). Ashby also mused about homering as a lefty and righty in the same game, sometime during his 17-year career, and I could only find one instance: September 27, 1982.

Obligatory post-1970s Blue Jays content: This was the final week of the 1982 season, so with Houston near the bottom of the NL West, Astros left fielder Jose Cruz was probably looking forward to spending some time with his eight-year-old son.

Hall(aday) of Names: Not A Long Time

(As always, a hat-tip to Mick Doherty.)

One look at the roster and you'll understand the concept of this team. Roger Clemens and Raul Mondesi don't qualify, which is super. Most of these players posted mediocre seasons, which makes sense--if they were any good, they'd probably stick around for a second year.

Special consideration is given to those players who had an impact on the Blue Jays beyond one year, either in trades (yeah, Ted Lilly was okay), useless milestones (but Jeff Frye still wasn't good enough), or amusing terminology (Mr. Michalak, the floor is yours). However, a player's non-Toronto career is generally not considered, so Jeff Kent is simply an average rookie instead of a guy with 365 homers.

Guys like Jesse Litsch aren't eligible for obvious reasons, but Victor Zambrano and Tomo Ohka are. Not that they made the team anyway.

It doesn't matter if it's a rainy city, because there's a retractable roof over the head of the...

GOOD TIMERS

Manager: Tim Johnson (of course)

LINEUP
RF Ron Fairly '77
1B David Segui '98
CF Bobby Kielty '03
LF Jose Canseco '98
DH Dave Winfield '92
2B Pat Kelly '99
C Bengie Molina '06
3B Corey Koskie '05
SS Chris Gomez '04

BENCH
C Todd Greene '00
IF Mike Stanley '98
IF Jeff Kent '92
OF Dave Martinez '00
OF Rickey Henderson '93

ROTATION
SP Tim Candiotti '91
SP Frank Castillo '00
SP Chris Michalak '01
SP Corey Lidle '03
SP Tom Filer '85

BULLPEN
RP Randy Myers '98
RP Trever Miller '03
RP Victor Cruz '78
RP Randy Moffitt '83
RP Omar Daal '97
RP Edwin Hurtado '95

Note: I found these players by manual search because it's more fun, and because I was rewarded after that Frye-Michalak-Latham-Cordova rut with the greatness of Dave Martinez.

Top Ten Paul Godfrey Excuses

10. "Not enough fans were standing for God Bless America."

9. "In order for Toronto to forget all this, I just need to say 'Buffalo Bills two home games' three times in a row in front of a mirror."

8. "It will be nice to have people cheering for something other than the chili race."

7. "Ryan Greer has this fetish that concerns flying pizza...I felt it was best not to question him further."

6. "Listen, pal, they don't give the Order of Canada to just anyone."

5. "Figured I would bring in some fans who know what a championship team looks like."

4. "Don't believe everything you read in the Sun."

3. "We've increased our attendance five years in a row. What, did you think it was because of 'Beginning/Middle/Ryan'?"

2. "Now we get to play New York, New York again and piss off another fan base in the process."

1. "Three hours spent here, with the overbearingly loud in-game advertisements, lame contests, break-dancers on the dugout, horribly overpriced food, and all the constant interruptions we inflict on our paying fans, will drive away anyone who expected to enjoy a baseball game."

Jay-f/x 2007: Fastballs

Skip to the first heading below if you wish to skip my introductory rambling.

I should have said in my first post that my analysis is not meant to be completely serious. I'm serious all day at my "day job"; this is just for fun. My goal is for you to read this and think "huh, that's kinda neat."

Mike Fast correctly stated that the Kalk interpretations of the Pitch-f/x data are not definitive, as we already saw with Litsch, Doc, and others. That's fine; I previously stated that I have no issues with Kalk's classifications, simply because I don't have the time, initiative, or ability to crunch the numbers myself. There is much to be gained from deep analysis of a particular pitcher's pitches (to create a tongue-twister there) but I'm more interested in the team as a whole, so I'm generally not going to look too closely at anyone during this little series. I also wish I remembered more R tricks from last year's stat course, but such is life.

Get to the fastballs, already

Very well. Here's a closer look at each pitcher's main fastball. The word "main" should be self-evident for most pitchers, based on the frequency plot shown in the last post, but there are a few I need to think about for a moment. Based on the assumption that a pitcher's main pitch is the one he throws a) most of the time and/or b) when he's behind in the count, I'll consider Halladay's sinker, Janssen's cutter, Marcum's regular fastball, and Litsch's...well, I won't include Litsch. Sorry, I know that's hand-wavey, but here's the data table.

Fastball characteristics for Toronto Blue Jays pitchers (break in inches, speed in mph)
Pitcher	H. Break	V. Break	Speed
Accardo (FB)	−7.4	10.2	94.9
Burnett (FB)	−5.1	9.7	96.0
Downs (FB)	12.0	5.2	89.7
Frasor (FB)	−3.6	13.0	94.3
Halladay (SNK)	−8.5	5.3	91.6
Janssen (CUT)	1.9	5.9	89.8
Marcum (FB)	−5.0	12.8	88.7
McGowan (FB)	−5.7	11.1	95.7
Ohka (FB)	−5.6	9.7	86.6
Tallet (FB)	10.9	10.1	91.4
Towers (FB)	−3.9	10.8	87.5

And here's the graph, with the same scale that Kalk used in his horizontal/vertical break graphs.

The points aren't labelled, but the two lefties (Downs and Tallet) are on the right. Janssen's all by himself in the middle. We know Halladay's sinker can induce groundballs, and its appearance at the bottom-left of the RHP cluster is no surprise.

Other characteristics that caught my eye:

• Accardo throws really fast. Or not. This is one of those inaccuracies I was talking about -- the fastball speeds at Rogers Centre can be kind of high. Average speed of 94.9? I don't know so much.
  
• Break-wise, Accardo's fastball is very similar to McGowan and Burnett.
  
• Speaking of Peaches and AJ, as you might expect from watching them pitch, they're the two pitchers with the most similar fastballs, break-wise, on the Jays.
  
• Towers' is also quite similar in this way. And that's about the only similarity between him and them.
• Ohka's fastball: 86.6 mph (averaged over 226 pitches, though). Most of his pitches were between 78 and 88, which isn't surprising in the least.
  

Now I'll consider all fastballs (cutters, sinkers, the works) and do a sanity check on the 0-0 pitch characteristics. (At this point, we'll say goodbye to Ohka.)

Frequency of first-pitch fastballs of all types for Toronto Blue Jays pitchers
Pitcher	% 0-0	% All	diff
Accardo	81	72	10
Burnett	73	63	10
Tallet	69	61	8
Downs	60	53	7
Marcum	62	57	5
Halladay	82	77	5
McGowan	64	59	5
Towers	62	59	3
Janssen	72	68	3
Litsch	30	27	3
Frasor	67	70	−3

Further reading

If you're still curious about Litsch, you can read this post or this one, both by Jonathan Hale. You can also check out Mike Fast's catalog of articles from around the web, organized by pitcher, for more information on Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, or others.

Jay-f/x 2007: Introduction

I'll be using Josh Kalk's Pitch-f/x data summaries, available for most pitchers at http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/players.html. The set of pitchers studied includes all the "important" pitchers, where important is defined by me, plus Tomo Ohka. Pitch classifications are normally left at the Kalk defaults with two exceptions:

• Roy Halladay's slider was renamed as a curve. Almost everyone considers this pitch a curveball.
  
• A.J. Burnett's sinker was changed to a plain fastball. He often works "fastball up, curveball down" so I don't think those are sinkers.

I have no issues with Kalk's classification methods, not by any means, but I felt I should make those changes.

How reliable is the data?

I can't find it now, but there was an article discussing how the pitch speed at Rogers Centre was artificially high. Also, we don't have every single pitch for all of these pitchers. Baseball-Reference.com records the number of pitches thrown by each pitcher in 2007 and the Kalk data provides a count. I've summarized these numbers below:

	Kalk	B-Ref	% recorded
Marcum	1826	2543	72%
McGowan	1842	2702	68%
Janssen	691	1065	65%
Litsch	1126	1771	64%
Halladay	2097	3326	63%
Burnett	1551	2649	59%
Frasor	596	1034	58%
Towers	956	1667	57%
Tallet	619	1084	57%
Downs	505	912	55%
Accardo	587	1081	54%
TOTAL	12396	19834	62%

Marcum and McGowan are the best-covered pitchers, though we have the equivalent of two more analysed starts for Halladay. The five starters are represented well, and only one third of Janssen's pitches are missing. So if you want, you can pretty much ignore anything I say for Frasor through Accardo.

Other general warnings about the accuracy of the Pitch-f/x system as a whole apply.

What do they throw?

Glad you asked.

Pitch type and frequency (%) for Toronto Blue Jays pitchers
Pitcher	Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Slider	Change	Curve
Accardo	72			6	22
Burnett	63				9	28
Downs	53			11	9	27
Frasor	70			25	6
Halladay		32	45			23
Janssen	33	36		18		14
Litsch	10	17		61	12
Marcum	31	26		14	21	8
McGowan	59			19	10	12
Ohka	46			54
Tallet	45	16		26	13
Towers	51	8		35	6

Or, graphically (click for larger version):

(You'll note that Ohka wasn't included in the pitcher coverage table. I actually added him near the end of my analysis, just so we could have a good laugh. He doesn't even have 500 pitches recorded by Kalk.)

This seems like a decent introduction for now. Consider those tables for a while and let me know what you'd like to see next (or do it yourself!)