Screw it, let's have some fun. Obviously, it's too early to punt the season yet, but let's face it, there's a pretty solid chance (maybe 50/50?) that the Jays are going to have to punt the season by the August trade deadline if not the July one. So let's have some fun, and assume that 2008 is the end of the Five-Year Cycle and we're headed for a teardown and rebuild.
Now, of course, we should be careful to point out that the Jays are very, very far from needing a complete teardown, and there will be no need to promote and play a bunch of 22-year-old kids in a futile attempt to hothouse a winner. There's lots of pieces here that will be part of the Next Great Jays Team.
First, let's note that after 2008, all the existing payroll obligations to former players are gone. This means two things: (1) more room to cut payroll and sock it away for future years; and (2) room if needed to dump some money with players to pick up prospects or young players or turnaround projects. Now secondly, let's remember that presumably, the Blue Jays would be looking at 2011 or 2010 at the outside as a first year to contend under a rebuilt team. But more likely 2011.
First clearout : Gibby. Clearly, if the Jays are fallen out of contention by July or August, Gibby will be fired. So that's one gone.
Now let's consider the rotation. Doc is signed for two more years after 2008, at $30 million total. He's excellent value for those years, superlative value for 2008 as well at a salary of only $10 million. I suppose that your desire to keep Doc is proportional to your ability to sign him to another extension, as the Jays did last time. I think the chances of that are good, and Doc provides a focus that the team can build around. I'd want him to stay.
A.J. Burnett is as good as gone, assuming he has any value left by then. He has the opt-out clause in his contract after this year, and he would be crazy not to exercise it if he remains relatively healthy. So A.J. must be traded to a contender. He would bring considerable value - his contract's pretty reasonable. A.J. has a no-trade clause that blocks 15 teams, but that's not insurmountable.
Dustin McGowan has about 1.6 years' service time. He is part of the Next Great Jays Team. Shaun Marcum has 15 more days' service time than McGowan, and he is also part of the Next Great Jays Team. Jesse Litsch has about exactly one year less than the other two. It's easy to forget that the Jays have three quite competent, very young starters in their rotation, a situation that most other teams would kill for.
Young pitchers in the bullpen who are also under the Jays' control for the next three years or more (usually much more) are Tallet, League, Wolfe, Accardo, and Carlson. There is no reason to trade any of these guys, unless you want to "sell high" on Brian Wolfe.
Jason Frasor is an interesting case, and if there is one pitcher in the team who I think could be traded well in advance of the deadline, it's Frasor, who remains a guy with a very live arm but who doesn't have the management's confidence. Frasor has about 3 3/4 years of service time, meaning he is under control for the next two years but not in 2011. He's available at a good price, and Carlson is going to eat even more of his innings. There is no particular reason, with the number of younger pitchers the team has, to retain Frasor and if someone offers a righty-hitting outfielder for Frasor you'd think he'd be gone like yesterday's grocery flyers.
Scott Downs, given his new-found shoulder woes, may have missed a market. Downs is signed for 2009 and 2010 at pretty big dollars for a middle reliever ($3.75M and $4M). I think he is worth it if healthy. However, again we need to remember that the NGJT arrives in 2011. If his wing is a go, Downs would probably be well-sought after. However, the length of his contract may mean his value is lower, in which case keeping him in Toronto may make more sense.
It may make particular sense because although it kills me to say it, B.J. Ryan may be out the door right behind A.J. Burnett. I absolutely love Ryan, but the fact remains that for a team looking to cut budget to enter a rebuilding phase, and in a team where Jeremy Accardo can increase his value by moving to the closer role, Ryan is superfluous to requirements if you're not contending. His $10M/year deal is not an obstacle to him being traded to a team that needs help closing games - provided he's throwing well, you only need to locate that team and you should manage to get a good package in return for Ryan, especially given that he is yet another guy signed through 2010 but a free agent thereafter.
So that's the pitchers. I see four on the block in the event of a rebuilding phase beginning - Burnett, Ryan, Downs, and Frasor (who is on the block anyway). That would represent, incidentally, a total of $27 million off the 2009 payroll, although of course all four are very unlikely to be dealt.
We'll do the hitters later. Let's say that while there are nine pitchers on the roster that you'd think could be part of the Next Great Jays Team, there are... um... slightly fewer hitters you'd say that about.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Blast from the Recent Past
Back in the 2005-06, when the world was fresh and green and a young man could usually post on a Jays-related website without wanting to spill blood all over it, a group of us had a conversation about Brad Wilkerson over at Batter's Box. Wilkerson was a popular rumoured target of the Jays at the time, a target that I think we all can say we're relieved not to have hit.
I had something to say that I saw again tonight and that I thought was a particularly good, short point about my favorite hobbyhorse, risk.
You've done a much better job at outlining the anti-Wilkerson case, which I acknowledge is totally legit and sensible. Few players are perfect, and Wilkerson's flaws are more obvious than most good players (his skills are also less obvious).
Much of that case boils down to Wilkerson having a bad year last year. If he hadn't, there is absolutely no way he'd be available in the first place - the year before he'd hit 32 home runs and nobody could touch him with a ten-foot pole. "What have you done for me lately?" has a powerful psychological hold on fans, press and baseball people, but it shouldn't make us lose sight of the fact that Wilkerson's skills do not appear to be significantly eroded, he is still in his prime, and his relatively poor performance last year will make him cheaper in arbitration.
Wilkerson is risky, because he may not return to the level he played at previously. Because of the Jays' position in the AL, it is imperative that they take significant risks in order to be competitive. The Jays cannot wait for the "sure thing" to drop into their lap, not merely because we've all waited long enough, but because they need to get more bang for their buck than the typical team. Taking risks needs to be an essential part of their strategy. Signing players like Wilkerson who have just had an off year is a sensible way to add risk to the team.
In business, in life, in baseball, too often we equate the notion of "risk management" with "risk minimization". This is not the proper way to see risk. Properly considered, risk in and of itself is value-neutral, and merely adds variability. The Jays need to make variability their friend if they want to win a World Series - almost anybody does. If you want an example of that, call up Kenny Williams and ask him why he signed Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras or ask the Pistons why they "rolled the dice" with Antonio McDyess.
Properly managed, risk wins championships.
I had something to say that I saw again tonight and that I thought was a particularly good, short point about my favorite hobbyhorse, risk.
You've done a much better job at outlining the anti-Wilkerson case, which I acknowledge is totally legit and sensible. Few players are perfect, and Wilkerson's flaws are more obvious than most good players (his skills are also less obvious).
Much of that case boils down to Wilkerson having a bad year last year. If he hadn't, there is absolutely no way he'd be available in the first place - the year before he'd hit 32 home runs and nobody could touch him with a ten-foot pole. "What have you done for me lately?" has a powerful psychological hold on fans, press and baseball people, but it shouldn't make us lose sight of the fact that Wilkerson's skills do not appear to be significantly eroded, he is still in his prime, and his relatively poor performance last year will make him cheaper in arbitration.
Wilkerson is risky, because he may not return to the level he played at previously. Because of the Jays' position in the AL, it is imperative that they take significant risks in order to be competitive. The Jays cannot wait for the "sure thing" to drop into their lap, not merely because we've all waited long enough, but because they need to get more bang for their buck than the typical team. Taking risks needs to be an essential part of their strategy. Signing players like Wilkerson who have just had an off year is a sensible way to add risk to the team.
In business, in life, in baseball, too often we equate the notion of "risk management" with "risk minimization". This is not the proper way to see risk. Properly considered, risk in and of itself is value-neutral, and merely adds variability. The Jays need to make variability their friend if they want to win a World Series - almost anybody does. If you want an example of that, call up Kenny Williams and ask him why he signed Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras or ask the Pistons why they "rolled the dice" with Antonio McDyess.
Properly managed, risk wins championships.
That Hurts - Part 1 of a long series
“I don’t know if we have the luxury of waiting two to three months for someone to kick in because we can’t let this league or this division get away from us." -J.P. Riccardi
Days since Frank Thomas was released : 10
Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 2-7
Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 0 in 9 games
Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .313/.476/.500
Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .143/.250/.190
We're doing this one all summer, boys.
Days since Frank Thomas was released : 10
Blue Jays' record since Frank Thomas last appeared in their lineup : 2-7
Number of times Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs : 0 in 9 games
Frank Thomas's batting line since his release : .313/.476/.500
Shannon Stewart's batting line since Thomas's release : .143/.250/.190
We're doing this one all summer, boys.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Credit where it's due
God knows we get on Gibby for...everything, lately. But consider his decision today to pitch B.J. Ryan in the eighth and Jesse Carlson in the ninth:
1) Ryan needed work and Gibbons didn't wait for a ninth-inning situation that could have never happened (if KC took the lead and the Jays didn't tie it).
2) Ryan only threw nine pitches and could have pitched the ninth, presumably, but Gibbons decided the ninth wasn't important enough to send Ryan back out. Then again you could mark this up to "riding the hot hand" (Carlson) and "only three outs for the closer."
3) Up by one in the 8th is more crucial, I'm assuming, than up by one in the ninth (the likely state of the game given what we knew after seven innings).
4) Most importantly, someone else got a save when Ryan was available to pitch.
While I'm here, I am also a big fan of any lineup with Eckstein not leading off. More, please.
1) Ryan needed work and Gibbons didn't wait for a ninth-inning situation that could have never happened (if KC took the lead and the Jays didn't tie it).
2) Ryan only threw nine pitches and could have pitched the ninth, presumably, but Gibbons decided the ninth wasn't important enough to send Ryan back out. Then again you could mark this up to "riding the hot hand" (Carlson) and "only three outs for the closer."
3) Up by one in the 8th is more crucial, I'm assuming, than up by one in the ninth (the likely state of the game given what we knew after seven innings).
4) Most importantly, someone else got a save when Ryan was available to pitch.
While I'm here, I am also a big fan of any lineup with Eckstein not leading off. More, please.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Frank Thomas Released
Frank Thomas has been released after he complained about being benched in order to prevent his option kicking in (let's be adults here, it's obvious this is what is going on).
I have defended J.P. Ricciardi for an awfully long time, but it's become more and more obvious as time goes on that he is a very poor manager of risk. Just how getting rid of one of your highest-upside players is supposed to help you win the pennant, I haven't the faintest idea. Ricciardi has become more and more conservative in his decision-making the longer he's been in the job, and the results are the disheartening mess of an attempt at "contention" we've seen the last two years. The original contract to Thomas was an excellent piece of risk management in my view. This latest move, though, repudiates all the good work put into it.
I have defended J.P. Ricciardi for an awfully long time, but it's become more and more obvious as time goes on that he is a very poor manager of risk. Just how getting rid of one of your highest-upside players is supposed to help you win the pennant, I haven't the faintest idea. Ricciardi has become more and more conservative in his decision-making the longer he's been in the job, and the results are the disheartening mess of an attempt at "contention" we've seen the last two years. The original contract to Thomas was an excellent piece of risk management in my view. This latest move, though, repudiates all the good work put into it.
Frank, my dear
In response to the "does Thomas have anything left" discussion at Da Box:
--
I'm sure Thomas has something left, too. I'm just not sure what it is.
He's hitting just .159 on balls in play, his lowest ever. His .177 in 2005 at least came with a slugging average near .600 and a homer every three games. That may correct itself if he gets more playing time, but his line drive rate has been dropping steadily for five or six years, and with it his power. Even if you ignore this year. Subjectively, of course, Thomas looks awful (though I recognize that he looked similarly bad last year and still ended up above-average).
And this "Thomas is always a slow starter" nonsense needs to be put to rest. It's only lately that he's really struggled in the beginning--i.e., April 2006 and May 2007. In his career, his March/April line is .283/.407/.513 vs. .302/.420/.559 overall. Doesn't seem that far off to me.
I know we're all supposed to think warm and fuzzy thoughts about Frank the teddy bear, but unless that bear is going to maul someone like Dana Eveland, it looks as clear to me as the lack of hair on Magpie's head that Thomas' career is either done or close to it.
FREE ADAM LIND.
--
I'm sure Thomas has something left, too. I'm just not sure what it is.
He's hitting just .159 on balls in play, his lowest ever. His .177 in 2005 at least came with a slugging average near .600 and a homer every three games. That may correct itself if he gets more playing time, but his line drive rate has been dropping steadily for five or six years, and with it his power. Even if you ignore this year. Subjectively, of course, Thomas looks awful (though I recognize that he looked similarly bad last year and still ended up above-average).
And this "Thomas is always a slow starter" nonsense needs to be put to rest. It's only lately that he's really struggled in the beginning--i.e., April 2006 and May 2007. In his career, his March/April line is .283/.407/.513 vs. .302/.420/.559 overall. Doesn't seem that far off to me.
I know we're all supposed to think warm and fuzzy thoughts about Frank the teddy bear, but unless that bear is going to maul someone like Dana Eveland, it looks as clear to me as the lack of hair on Magpie's head that Thomas' career is either done or close to it.
FREE ADAM LIND.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Ouch
Well, that was a roller coaster ride last night. Quite literally : the Win Probability graph over at FanGraphs looks like an EKG of Jerry Lewis being propositioned by Marilyn Monroe.
As I said to Rob after last night finally ended, yes it was not a well-played game, and it was frustrating as all get out, but it was a million times better than the shower of shit we endured last Wednesday when Marco Scutaro redefined the word FAIL.
As I said to Rob after last night finally ended, yes it was not a well-played game, and it was frustrating as all get out, but it was a million times better than the shower of shit we endured last Wednesday when Marco Scutaro redefined the word FAIL.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Halladay in heat
So here's what Cathal Kelly's Glasses posted about Halladay's performance in hot weather:
The Baltimore start was his last of the season, a below average outing for Doc (but a fantastic outing for Victor Zambrano). Weather apparently 85 and cloudy.
And maybe I'm not the man either, but here's what I found. Using 2002-2007 as the range and counting all of Halladay's 173 starts in that six-year period, I would say Halladay is actually quite a bit better on hot days, given that he shows no significant decrease in results (whereas, to quote Jonathan Hale, "batters in weather under 50 degrees Fahrenheit average .249/.318/.410 while in a pleasant 81-85, they hit .297/.356/.468"). Seriously. There's no correlation whatsoever between his Game Score and the game time temperature.
But whatever. If Roy Halladay came up to me, the newly-appointed manager of the Blue Jays (I live in Boston*; that's why JP was here recently) and says, "Skip, I'm tired of this global warming thing. Give me an extra day off so I don't pitch in K.C.," Jesse Litsch would be on that mound so fast he wouldn't be pink and round anymore.
* I do not live in Boston.
I'm not the man to take up the statisical/research challenge, but it would be interesting to measure Halladay's lifetime performance in reference to the heat when he pitches. Halladay flat out hates it hot. Last year, in a September start in Baltimore, the first line out of his mouth after the game was "I'm beginning to believe in that whole global warming thing."
The Baltimore start was his last of the season, a below average outing for Doc (but a fantastic outing for Victor Zambrano). Weather apparently 85 and cloudy.
And maybe I'm not the man either, but here's what I found. Using 2002-2007 as the range and counting all of Halladay's 173 starts in that six-year period, I would say Halladay is actually quite a bit better on hot days, given that he shows no significant decrease in results (whereas, to quote Jonathan Hale, "batters in weather under 50 degrees Fahrenheit average .249/.318/.410 while in a pleasant 81-85, they hit .297/.356/.468"). Seriously. There's no correlation whatsoever between his Game Score and the game time temperature.
But whatever. If Roy Halladay came up to me, the newly-appointed manager of the Blue Jays (I live in Boston*; that's why JP was here recently) and says, "Skip, I'm tired of this global warming thing. Give me an extra day off so I don't pitch in K.C.," Jesse Litsch would be on that mound so fast he wouldn't be pink and round anymore.
* I do not live in Boston.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Hinske Contract Follies
The signing of Chris Young to a long-term deal by the Diamondbacks has prompted a revisitation of, among others, the Eric Hinske contract over at Primer. Where it was asserted that "it wasn't a good idea to commit to Hinske so soon".
My thoughts :
The Jays knew that Hinske had flaws in his approach at the plate, so I think it's quite legitimate to criticize the early commitment to Hinske, but two points need to be emphasized:
1. Based on the available projections at the time, the contract was a steal - in other words, I don't think anyone showed empirically that it was anything other than a good idea.
2. The Jays thought they could fix Hinske's flaws, correct his style without disturbing his talent.
They proved to be wrong on point #2, and that's a shame (Hinske's weight is still too far forward), and the hand injury probably didn't help, as he cut down his swing and started even further over his centre of gravity, slashing at the ball instead of driving off the back foot. Everyone (literally just about everyone) started pitching him backwards and he began to flail. He's not a "student of the game", exactly, is Hinske. Or a student of anything.
Should they have known? Debatable - it wouldn't have hurt them to exercise caution and it would have saved them a bit of money (true, Hinske delivered just about market value for his performance after 2002 but they wouldn't have had to pay *him* that much). Hinske had dropped off in the second half as word got around that he would overcommit to his weight transfer, and that should have been obvious - there may have been some who believed it was just the season wearing on him. I wouldn't have hesitated to sign him to the same deal at the time, though. I thought it was a fine idea, that didn't work out.
My thoughts :
The Jays knew that Hinske had flaws in his approach at the plate, so I think it's quite legitimate to criticize the early commitment to Hinske, but two points need to be emphasized:
1. Based on the available projections at the time, the contract was a steal - in other words, I don't think anyone showed empirically that it was anything other than a good idea.
2. The Jays thought they could fix Hinske's flaws, correct his style without disturbing his talent.
They proved to be wrong on point #2, and that's a shame (Hinske's weight is still too far forward), and the hand injury probably didn't help, as he cut down his swing and started even further over his centre of gravity, slashing at the ball instead of driving off the back foot. Everyone (literally just about everyone) started pitching him backwards and he began to flail. He's not a "student of the game", exactly, is Hinske. Or a student of anything.
Should they have known? Debatable - it wouldn't have hurt them to exercise caution and it would have saved them a bit of money (true, Hinske delivered just about market value for his performance after 2002 but they wouldn't have had to pay *him* that much). Hinske had dropped off in the second half as word got around that he would overcommit to his weight transfer, and that should have been obvious - there may have been some who believed it was just the season wearing on him. I wouldn't have hesitated to sign him to the same deal at the time, though. I thought it was a fine idea, that didn't work out.
Trouble for The Hated Yankees? Not so much
News arrives that Derek Jeter is hurt, and will miss a small amount of time. There is already discussion out there (hat tip to Jeff Passan at Yahoo) that maybe A-Rod should take over at short if La Derek needs to miss some time.
Wise Yankee Watcher Mick Doherty over at Da Box says that Wilson Betemit is listed on most depth charts as the backup shortstop. (And furthermore uses his own experience of watching A-Rod in Dallas to point out that A-Rod wasn't that great a shortstop to begin with, five years ago.)
But I'd point out that if Jeter were out for a while, you can't play Betemit at short. Alex may not have been great, but Betemit is terrible. He's got slow feet and his arm isn't shortstop quality because of a slow release. You'd be loads better off playing A-Rod at short and letting Ensberg and Betemit platoon at third base, where between then they would probably give production not too far off Derek Jeter's. Betemit/Ensberg is a hell of a platoon offensively and Alberto Gonzalez probably isn't major-league ready yet (if he will ever be). I agree that it's politically a difficult move, politically implausible if Jeter is only out for a couple of days.
If he's out for weeks, I think that equation changes. What's amazing is that after a couple of years of being Benchless Wonders (for a while easrly last year, the Yankees had what must have been the worst major league bench in the history of Christendom), the Yankees have realized the errors of their ways and now have a pretty robust group of backups. A Betemit/Ensberg platoon is far better than what 10-15 teams in baseball have starting at third, and is better than what a lot of teams have starting at first.
Wise Yankee Watcher Mick Doherty over at Da Box says that Wilson Betemit is listed on most depth charts as the backup shortstop. (And furthermore uses his own experience of watching A-Rod in Dallas to point out that A-Rod wasn't that great a shortstop to begin with, five years ago.)
But I'd point out that if Jeter were out for a while, you can't play Betemit at short. Alex may not have been great, but Betemit is terrible. He's got slow feet and his arm isn't shortstop quality because of a slow release. You'd be loads better off playing A-Rod at short and letting Ensberg and Betemit platoon at third base, where between then they would probably give production not too far off Derek Jeter's. Betemit/Ensberg is a hell of a platoon offensively and Alberto Gonzalez probably isn't major-league ready yet (if he will ever be). I agree that it's politically a difficult move, politically implausible if Jeter is only out for a couple of days.
If he's out for weeks, I think that equation changes. What's amazing is that after a couple of years of being Benchless Wonders (for a while easrly last year, the Yankees had what must have been the worst major league bench in the history of Christendom), the Yankees have realized the errors of their ways and now have a pretty robust group of backups. A Betemit/Ensberg platoon is far better than what 10-15 teams in baseball have starting at third, and is better than what a lot of teams have starting at first.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Where Do Bullpens Come From?
[This post is cross-posted from Tiny Chunks of Empire]
Good discussion over at Primer on "where bullpens come from". Specifically, the provenance of individual relievers - how they came to be relievers, and most specifically, whether they were originally starters and were converted to relief.
What's more interesting to me than whether a guy is a starter convert, though (and which made my heart jump a beat when I saw "where do bullpens come from") is how General Managers (and field managers) build a bullpen.
Let's take our current Blue Jays and their superb pen as an example. How do you build a really good pen? Let's look at the relievers on the active roster...
B.J. RYAN - Big-ticket free agent signing (in fact, the largest ever contract awarded a reliever at the time it was signed). Signed away from Baltimore. Currently in year 3 of a 5-year, $47-million deal.
JEREMY ACCARDO - Acquired in a 2006 deadline trade with San Francisco for Shea Hillenbrand and reliever Vinnie Chulk. The trade was widely seen as a pure contract dump (Hillenbrand was massively unpopular with the team and had a relatively big contract) and Accardo was a relatively anonymous player. The trade was a brilliant steal for Toronto, so far. Accardo is currently making major league minimum and will be arb-eligible next season. He was originally an undrafted free agent, showing how far down the organizational totem pole he was at first, and then rocketed through the Giants' system in two years.
CASEY JANSSEN - A 4th-round draft choice in 2004 out of UCLA (received a $150,000 signing bonus). Few had Janssen rated that high other than myself and a very few other statistically-aware draft watchers. Janssen moved steadily through the system and came to the team as a starter when injuries hit in 2006; he was moved to the pen before 2007 and performed brilliantly. Still making minimum and will be arb-eligible in 2009.
SCOTT DOWNS - Signed as a minor-league free agent before the 2005 season. At the time, Downs was widely seen as going nowhere fast given what many perceived as mediocre stuff. What wasn't understood is that Downs had good stuff, just not a good fastball. His secondary pitches were excellent and when he was signed he was coming off a brilliant September for Montreal - in his last seven starts of 2004 he had an ERA around three and a half for a bad team. He has pitched extremely well since coming to Toronto, first as a swingman and now as the #1 setup lefty. Downs became arb-eligible after 2004, and signed modest one-year contracts for 2006 and 2007, before cashing in on his 2008 with a 3-year deal worth $10 million in total.
BRIAN TALLET - Acquired in a minor-league trade with Cleveland prior to the 2006 season, for minor-league reliever Bubbie Buzachero. Tallet has performed extremely well since coming to Toronto for absolutely nothing. I didn't think much of Tallet at the time, thought he was a gimmicky guy trying to make a go of it with a crossfire delivery. Turns out he was just waiting for Brad Arnsberg. J.P. Ricciardi doesn't get too much credit for Tallet though - he was DFAed in the spring of '06 and again in the spring of '07, and could easily have been lost to the team either time. Tallet was arb-eligible for the first time this year, as a "super two" and signed a modest one-year deal for about 50% over the minimum.
JASON FRASOR - Acquired in a trade with the Dodgers at the roster cut-down deadline just before the 2004 season. The Jays faced losing OF Jayson Werth due to a roster crunch and flipped him to LA for Frasor who had trouble moving up the ladder with the Dodgers. The knock on Frasor in LA was his size (too small) but he became an immediate favorite with the Jays who had a fairly dire bullpen situation after the clearout of Gord Ash's refuse pile and the implosion of Ricciardi's first round of scrap-heap pickups from 2003. The trade was probably a draw; Werth has been a useful part-timer for the Dodgers when he has been healthy, but Frasor has produced well for Toronto (his ERAs show a gradual recession, but the underlying stats show that's unwarranted). After making minimum for three years, he qualified for arb status last year as a super two and has since signed two modest one-year deals; he'll earn about three times the minimum this year.
BRANDON LEAGUE - A 2nd-round draft choice in 2001 out of high school in Hawaii, by the Gord Ash regime (received a $660,000 signing bonus). Was a starter under Ash, but once Ricciardi came one the scene and began pushing prospects more aggressively, League began flipping back and forth between starting and relieving. League saw sporadic action in 2005. He started the season with the big club but was inconsistent; the team thought he may profit from more seasoning and sent him back to Syracuse (calling up Matt Whiteside, of all people, in his place). Brought back in July, he struggled initially but finally caught his groove in the mopup role. He was sent out in 2006, though, specifically to close for Syracuse and to work as a short reliever once and for all. He did not pitch well but was brought back to Toronto in July and pitched brilliantly, mostly setting up Ryan and doing it very well. He then missed much of last season with a self-inflicted injury. League's still on the minimum and will be arb-aligible if he spends the year with the big club, as he should - he is now out of options.
BRIAN WOLFE - Acquired in trade with Milwaukee prior to the 2006 season. This was a widely-criticized trade in which the Jays dumped 3B Corey Koskie to Milwaukee in exchange for Wolfe, who was seen as a nothing player - mere organizational filler. Wolfe had bounced around a great deal and had actually been released by Minnesota's AAA farm club in Rochester because the pitching-laden Twins had nowhere at AA or AAA to put him when he was still recovering from an injury. The Brewers had picked him up and stuck him in A-ball where they were short a reliever, and then flipped him to the Jays after the end of the season. Wolfe had a highly undistinguished 2006 but caught fire in 2007, pitching great in the Syracuse pen and earning a call to Toronto when A Small Eternity With Tomo Ohka pulled up its tents and slunk out of town. Wolfe pitched for Toronto for most of the rest of the season; once John Gibbons realized that righties weren't touching Wolfe's stuff with a bargepole, he gained an increasingly prominent role as a righthanded specialist. Wolfe was never entirely convincing, but he stayed and more than held his own. He won a job for '08 easily out of camp. The Jays could easily have lost him in the 06/07 offseason as Wolfe was a six-year free agent, but credit to the management, they brought him back despite his poor year. He has at least two more years at the minimum.
RANDY WELLS - A Rule 5 Draft pick from the Chicago Cubs before the 2008 season. (Wells was therefore bought for the waiver price - $50,000). Currently auditioning for the role of mop-up man and sixth starter.
So for those counting, that's two draftees (one by Ricciardi's team, one that he inherited but who was mostly developed by his people); one very big-ticket free agent; one minor-league free agent with a spotty track record; three guys picked up in trades that were widely seen as forced on the Jays by salary or roster considerations; one guy picked up in a "my trash for your trash" trade; and a Rule 5 draft pick.
The total value spent on acquiring the eight guys behind Ryan probably wasn't ten million dollars of value all told, and 70% of that was Jayson Werth. You wouldn't accept the entire package together for Jeremy Accardo. Would you? Even if you could magically trade draft picks, would you take a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder, Shea Hillenbrand circa 2006, Vinnie Chulk circa 2006, Jayson Werth circa 2004, Bubbie Buzachero circa 2006, Corey Koskie circa 2006, and $860,000 for Accardo? I wouldn't. Accardo was an honest-to-god genuine big leaguer (though struggling) when the Jays landed him, but the other five non-draftees (Downs, Tallet, Frasor, Wolfe, Wells) were flotsam and garbage - none was considered a major league prospect worth blowing your nose on.
And that is how you build a bullpen. There will always be room for one or two guys who are genuinely, blow-you-away great (both in ability and salary demands). But the vast majority of great pens are built off someone else's rejects and your own mid-round draftees. The Jays have done that brilliantly.
Good discussion over at Primer on "where bullpens come from". Specifically, the provenance of individual relievers - how they came to be relievers, and most specifically, whether they were originally starters and were converted to relief.
What's more interesting to me than whether a guy is a starter convert, though (and which made my heart jump a beat when I saw "where do bullpens come from") is how General Managers (and field managers) build a bullpen.
Let's take our current Blue Jays and their superb pen as an example. How do you build a really good pen? Let's look at the relievers on the active roster...
B.J. RYAN - Big-ticket free agent signing (in fact, the largest ever contract awarded a reliever at the time it was signed). Signed away from Baltimore. Currently in year 3 of a 5-year, $47-million deal.
JEREMY ACCARDO - Acquired in a 2006 deadline trade with San Francisco for Shea Hillenbrand and reliever Vinnie Chulk. The trade was widely seen as a pure contract dump (Hillenbrand was massively unpopular with the team and had a relatively big contract) and Accardo was a relatively anonymous player. The trade was a brilliant steal for Toronto, so far. Accardo is currently making major league minimum and will be arb-eligible next season. He was originally an undrafted free agent, showing how far down the organizational totem pole he was at first, and then rocketed through the Giants' system in two years.
CASEY JANSSEN - A 4th-round draft choice in 2004 out of UCLA (received a $150,000 signing bonus). Few had Janssen rated that high other than myself and a very few other statistically-aware draft watchers. Janssen moved steadily through the system and came to the team as a starter when injuries hit in 2006; he was moved to the pen before 2007 and performed brilliantly. Still making minimum and will be arb-eligible in 2009.
SCOTT DOWNS - Signed as a minor-league free agent before the 2005 season. At the time, Downs was widely seen as going nowhere fast given what many perceived as mediocre stuff. What wasn't understood is that Downs had good stuff, just not a good fastball. His secondary pitches were excellent and when he was signed he was coming off a brilliant September for Montreal - in his last seven starts of 2004 he had an ERA around three and a half for a bad team. He has pitched extremely well since coming to Toronto, first as a swingman and now as the #1 setup lefty. Downs became arb-eligible after 2004, and signed modest one-year contracts for 2006 and 2007, before cashing in on his 2008 with a 3-year deal worth $10 million in total.
BRIAN TALLET - Acquired in a minor-league trade with Cleveland prior to the 2006 season, for minor-league reliever Bubbie Buzachero. Tallet has performed extremely well since coming to Toronto for absolutely nothing. I didn't think much of Tallet at the time, thought he was a gimmicky guy trying to make a go of it with a crossfire delivery. Turns out he was just waiting for Brad Arnsberg. J.P. Ricciardi doesn't get too much credit for Tallet though - he was DFAed in the spring of '06 and again in the spring of '07, and could easily have been lost to the team either time. Tallet was arb-eligible for the first time this year, as a "super two" and signed a modest one-year deal for about 50% over the minimum.
JASON FRASOR - Acquired in a trade with the Dodgers at the roster cut-down deadline just before the 2004 season. The Jays faced losing OF Jayson Werth due to a roster crunch and flipped him to LA for Frasor who had trouble moving up the ladder with the Dodgers. The knock on Frasor in LA was his size (too small) but he became an immediate favorite with the Jays who had a fairly dire bullpen situation after the clearout of Gord Ash's refuse pile and the implosion of Ricciardi's first round of scrap-heap pickups from 2003. The trade was probably a draw; Werth has been a useful part-timer for the Dodgers when he has been healthy, but Frasor has produced well for Toronto (his ERAs show a gradual recession, but the underlying stats show that's unwarranted). After making minimum for three years, he qualified for arb status last year as a super two and has since signed two modest one-year deals; he'll earn about three times the minimum this year.
BRANDON LEAGUE - A 2nd-round draft choice in 2001 out of high school in Hawaii, by the Gord Ash regime (received a $660,000 signing bonus). Was a starter under Ash, but once Ricciardi came one the scene and began pushing prospects more aggressively, League began flipping back and forth between starting and relieving. League saw sporadic action in 2005. He started the season with the big club but was inconsistent; the team thought he may profit from more seasoning and sent him back to Syracuse (calling up Matt Whiteside, of all people, in his place). Brought back in July, he struggled initially but finally caught his groove in the mopup role. He was sent out in 2006, though, specifically to close for Syracuse and to work as a short reliever once and for all. He did not pitch well but was brought back to Toronto in July and pitched brilliantly, mostly setting up Ryan and doing it very well. He then missed much of last season with a self-inflicted injury. League's still on the minimum and will be arb-aligible if he spends the year with the big club, as he should - he is now out of options.
BRIAN WOLFE - Acquired in trade with Milwaukee prior to the 2006 season. This was a widely-criticized trade in which the Jays dumped 3B Corey Koskie to Milwaukee in exchange for Wolfe, who was seen as a nothing player - mere organizational filler. Wolfe had bounced around a great deal and had actually been released by Minnesota's AAA farm club in Rochester because the pitching-laden Twins had nowhere at AA or AAA to put him when he was still recovering from an injury. The Brewers had picked him up and stuck him in A-ball where they were short a reliever, and then flipped him to the Jays after the end of the season. Wolfe had a highly undistinguished 2006 but caught fire in 2007, pitching great in the Syracuse pen and earning a call to Toronto when A Small Eternity With Tomo Ohka pulled up its tents and slunk out of town. Wolfe pitched for Toronto for most of the rest of the season; once John Gibbons realized that righties weren't touching Wolfe's stuff with a bargepole, he gained an increasingly prominent role as a righthanded specialist. Wolfe was never entirely convincing, but he stayed and more than held his own. He won a job for '08 easily out of camp. The Jays could easily have lost him in the 06/07 offseason as Wolfe was a six-year free agent, but credit to the management, they brought him back despite his poor year. He has at least two more years at the minimum.
RANDY WELLS - A Rule 5 Draft pick from the Chicago Cubs before the 2008 season. (Wells was therefore bought for the waiver price - $50,000). Currently auditioning for the role of mop-up man and sixth starter.
So for those counting, that's two draftees (one by Ricciardi's team, one that he inherited but who was mostly developed by his people); one very big-ticket free agent; one minor-league free agent with a spotty track record; three guys picked up in trades that were widely seen as forced on the Jays by salary or roster considerations; one guy picked up in a "my trash for your trash" trade; and a Rule 5 draft pick.
The total value spent on acquiring the eight guys behind Ryan probably wasn't ten million dollars of value all told, and 70% of that was Jayson Werth. You wouldn't accept the entire package together for Jeremy Accardo. Would you? Even if you could magically trade draft picks, would you take a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder, Shea Hillenbrand circa 2006, Vinnie Chulk circa 2006, Jayson Werth circa 2004, Bubbie Buzachero circa 2006, Corey Koskie circa 2006, and $860,000 for Accardo? I wouldn't. Accardo was an honest-to-god genuine big leaguer (though struggling) when the Jays landed him, but the other five non-draftees (Downs, Tallet, Frasor, Wolfe, Wells) were flotsam and garbage - none was considered a major league prospect worth blowing your nose on.
And that is how you build a bullpen. There will always be room for one or two guys who are genuinely, blow-you-away great (both in ability and salary demands). But the vast majority of great pens are built off someone else's rejects and your own mid-round draftees. The Jays have done that brilliantly.
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