The Rebuild

Screw it, let's have some fun. Obviously, it's too early to punt the season yet, but let's face it, there's a pretty solid chance (maybe 50/50?) that the Jays are going to have to punt the season by the August trade deadline if not the July one. So let's have some fun, and assume that 2008 is the end of the Five-Year Cycle and we're headed for a teardown and rebuild.

Now, of course, we should be careful to point out that the Jays are very, very far from needing a complete teardown, and there will be no need to promote and play a bunch of 22-year-old kids in a futile attempt to hothouse a winner. There's lots of pieces here that will be part of the Next Great Jays Team.

First, let's note that after 2008, all the existing payroll obligations to former players are gone. This means two things: (1) more room to cut payroll and sock it away for future years; and (2) room if needed to dump some money with players to pick up prospects or young players or turnaround projects. Now secondly, let's remember that presumably, the Blue Jays would be looking at 2011 or 2010 at the outside as a first year to contend under a rebuilt team. But more likely 2011.

First clearout : Gibby. Clearly, if the Jays are fallen out of contention by July or August, Gibby will be fired. So that's one gone.

Now let's consider the rotation. Doc is signed for two more years after 2008, at $30 million total. He's excellent value for those years, superlative value for 2008 as well at a salary of only $10 million. I suppose that your desire to keep Doc is proportional to your ability to sign him to another extension, as the Jays did last time. I think the chances of that are good, and Doc provides a focus that the team can build around. I'd want him to stay.

A.J. Burnett is as good as gone, assuming he has any value left by then. He has the opt-out clause in his contract after this year, and he would be crazy not to exercise it if he remains relatively healthy. So A.J. must be traded to a contender. He would bring considerable value - his contract's pretty reasonable. A.J. has a no-trade clause that blocks 15 teams, but that's not insurmountable.

Dustin McGowan has about 1.6 years' service time. He is part of the Next Great Jays Team. Shaun Marcum has 15 more days' service time than McGowan, and he is also part of the Next Great Jays Team. Jesse Litsch has about exactly one year less than the other two. It's easy to forget that the Jays have three quite competent, very young starters in their rotation, a situation that most other teams would kill for.

Young pitchers in the bullpen who are also under the Jays' control for the next three years or more (usually much more) are Tallet, League, Wolfe, Accardo, and Carlson. There is no reason to trade any of these guys, unless you want to "sell high" on Brian Wolfe.

Jason Frasor is an interesting case, and if there is one pitcher in the team who I think could be traded well in advance of the deadline, it's Frasor, who remains a guy with a very live arm but who doesn't have the management's confidence. Frasor has about 3 3/4 years of service time, meaning he is under control for the next two years but not in 2011. He's available at a good price, and Carlson is going to eat even more of his innings. There is no particular reason, with the number of younger pitchers the team has, to retain Frasor and if someone offers a righty-hitting outfielder for Frasor you'd think he'd be gone like yesterday's grocery flyers.

Scott Downs, given his new-found shoulder woes, may have missed a market. Downs is signed for 2009 and 2010 at pretty big dollars for a middle reliever ($3.75M and $4M). I think he is worth it if healthy. However, again we need to remember that the NGJT arrives in 2011. If his wing is a go, Downs would probably be well-sought after. However, the length of his contract may mean his value is lower, in which case keeping him in Toronto may make more sense.

It may make particular sense because although it kills me to say it, B.J. Ryan may be out the door right behind A.J. Burnett. I absolutely love Ryan, but the fact remains that for a team looking to cut budget to enter a rebuilding phase, and in a team where Jeremy Accardo can increase his value by moving to the closer role, Ryan is superfluous to requirements if you're not contending. His $10M/year deal is not an obstacle to him being traded to a team that needs help closing games - provided he's throwing well, you only need to locate that team and you should manage to get a good package in return for Ryan, especially given that he is yet another guy signed through 2010 but a free agent thereafter.

So that's the pitchers. I see four on the block in the event of a rebuilding phase beginning - Burnett, Ryan, Downs, and Frasor (who is on the block anyway). That would represent, incidentally, a total of $27 million off the 2009 payroll, although of course all four are very unlikely to be dealt.

We'll do the hitters later. Let's say that while there are nine pitchers on the roster that you'd think could be part of the Next Great Jays Team, there are... um... slightly fewer hitters you'd say that about.