Repost : Bases on Balls

This piece was first posted elsewhere, but I still stand behind it 100%. It's from September 28, so the reference to "last night" is to this McGowan start against the Devil Rays, in which he pitched relatively poorly but picked up his 12th and final win (it was his final start).

Studs Terkel tells the story in Ken Burns's "Baseball" series of George Stallings, the great manager of the Miracle Braves of 1914. Stallings was dying (this would have been in 1929) and when an old friend came to visit the dying man, he asked him "George, what's killing you?"

The reply came quickly,

"Bases on balls."

I was reminded of this little anecdote last night in watching good ol' Victor Zambrano get lit up for eight runs in the first inning (and later by watching Radhames Liz walk the bases loaded with no one out, before Leo Mazzone had to pop out of the dugout and scream at his rookie pitcher to throw some strikes. Liz proceeded to mow down ten Blue Jays in a row). You see, I talk with other Jays fans often about the pitching staff which has performed so briliantly this season, and the nearly desperate situation at the bottom of the Jays' batting order. There's a lot of general agreement out there on what needs to be done - with a surplus of young pitching (always the most sought-after commodity of major league baseball managers) the Blue Jays find themselves in an excellent position to make a trade and land a shortstop who can produce something with the bat. With John McDonald hitting about .150 since August (OK, he's actually at .xxx) this situation has been looming larger and larger for next season.

Who to trade? I hear a lot of highly unrealistic talk about trading Scott Downs or Casey Janssen or even Shaun Marcum for a good shortstop. Folks, it's not going to happen. Which is why I think the Jays should be looking to trade Dustin McGowan. Why? Those self-same, manager-killing bases on balls.

I don't like Dustin McGowan. He doesn't throw strikes.

We saw this in full flower in McGowan's last start against the Yankees, where that well-drilled and well-prepared team took pitch after pitch against McGowan and constantly worked themselves into 3-1 and 3-2 counts. (Say what you will about Joe Torre... Joe's teams always have an idea about what the are going to do in a game. They have a plan.) McGowan's problem, to the extent that it is a problem, isn't exactly young-pitcher wildness, either. McGowan isn't like Daniel Cabrera, who has no idea where the next pitch might end up, and he's not like Victor Zambrano either, who just can't be arsed where the next pitch endds up. McGowan quite deliberately makes a lot of pitches off the plate. It's a choice for him. And it's the type of choice that a catcher can't always do a lot about, either. Although Gregg Zaun keeps his pitchers on a much tighter rein than Jason Phillips, who loved to waste pitch after pitch setting up well out of the strike zone, there's not much Zaun can do if he sets up on the outside corner and McGowan throws it six inches outside.

This works a treat against teams who don't plan, or don't hit well (a team like the Orioles or the Devil Rays) because they tend to chase unhittable pitches early in the count.

McGowan's ten-million-dollar arm is, without a doubt, widely perceived as the jewel of the young Toronto pitchers. He will bring far more than pitchers like Janssen and Marcum with wider repetoires and more disciplined behaviour on the mound. And McGowan does not in fact walk a lot of batters, but until and unless he learns to choose to throw more strikes, he may never reach the heights that a more focused pitcher will. McGowan's a stud - I don't want to trade him. But if that's the only way to bring a talented infielder to the team, I think the Jays need to seriously consider it.